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Meme Coins Transfer Wealth Not Create It
A reader of Tuesday’s Daily Commentary made a very astute comment. The title of the Commentary was “Trump Meme Coin Creates Billions Out Of Thin Air.” It doesn’t create anything… It transfers He is 100% correct. Meme coins and other forms of cryptocurrency do not create dollars. They transfer dollars from one person or entity […]
Jan 22, 2025
Trump Meme Coin Creates Billions Out Of Thin Air
With markets closed over the long holiday weekend and Donald Trump’s inauguration and related politics taking center stage, no one thought the financial markets would make the headlines. They did. On Friday night, Donald Trump launched the largest meme coin in history. A meme coin is a cryptocurrency based on a meme. Like a baseball […]
Jan 21, 2025
Was CPI Better Than Good
The latest CPI inflation news was OK. The 0.4% headline increase is higher than in prior months but aligns with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is .1% lower than the consensus at .2%. The report relieved Wall Street as it did not show a resurgence in inflation. Stocks and bonds are trading much […]
Jan 20, 2025
Bond Vigilantes Are Building Tremendous Short Positions
Our Commentary from January 7, Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous, discussed the ‘tremendous’ investor outflows of the bond ETF- TLT. While outflows are often associated with bearish sentiment, that is not always true. Nonetheless, TLT is in a bearish trend, and indeed, some of the record outflows from TLT are due to the environment. It’s […]
Jan 17, 2025
The Trump Bump And Dump
On Monday, the S&P 500 officially made a round trip back to the same levels as election eve. The equity rally that kicked off when Donald Trump won the election has been erased. The financial media blames the recent dump on prospects for wide-reaching tariffs and other policies. The reality is that higher bond yields […]
Jan 16, 2025
The Inflation Narrative Versus Reality
Fed rate cuts, tariffs, deficits, California wildfires, and other narratives bolster a growing concern that inflation will surge again. While those narratives are concerning, and some may have merit, market and survey-based inflation expectations do not confirm them. The Fed and almost all economists use two types of gauges to measure inflation expectations: surveys and […]
Jan 15, 2025
Buffett Is Worrying, Should You?
Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has about $325 billion in cash, accounting for over a quarter of its portfolio—the highest percentage in over 30 years. The question begging an answer is, what is worrying Warren Buffett? We believe the answer is valuations. We have shared numerous charts over the last few months showing how valuations […]
Jan 14, 2025
Jobs, Stocks, And Bonds Oh My!
The initial reaction to Friday’s BLS jobs report was a yield surge and a sharp stock decline. Stock investors are finally noticing higher yields. While sentiment can certainly cause stocks and bonds to deviate from fundamentals, at the end of the day, they both have fundamental roots in economic activity. Over the past couple of […]
Jan 13, 2025
The Quantum Computing Bubble Is Leaking
The latest stock market bubble may be one of the shortest-lived bubbles in recent times. Quantum computing stocks rose in November and took off in December when Google touted the immense power of quantum computing. The following is from Google (LINK): Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one […]
Jan 10, 2025
Inflation Concerns Scare The Bond Market
As we share below, bond market sentiment, known officially as the term premium, has been almost entirely responsible for the recent surge in bond yields. Specifically, behind the move is investor concern regarding another round of inflation stemming from the recent Fed’s rate cuts. The poor sentiment is very apparent when comparing news to a […]
Jan 9, 2025
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