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New Tariffs Torpedo Global Markets
Investors woke up Monday morning to a sea of red. On Friday, after the markets had closed for the weekend, President Trump announced a new series of tariffs levied against Mexico, Canada, and China. Moreover, he threatened that those tariffs could increase and that new tariffs would be announced for the Euro-region. Cryptocurrencies, technology, and […]
Feb 4, 2025
Can Musk Be The Bond Whisperer
The media holds bond vigilantes out as do-gooders looking to force the government to be fiscally responsible. In reality, these vigilantes are traders who are short bonds, and use the fear of deficits and inflation to drive yields higher. While the term has been around for 25+ years, their recent success is unlike any past. […]
Feb 3, 2025
MSFT And TSLA: Earnings Create Quite The Conundrum
An investor reading Microsoft’s (MSFT) and Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings summaries on Wednesday night would likely anticipate that MSFT shares would trade higher and Tesla shares lower. At the opening of the market the following day, the opposite held. MSFT opened up 4% lower, while TSLA was 4% higher. Let’s summarize their respective earnings to see […]
Jan 31, 2025
Rate Cuts Put On Hold
As expected, the Federal Reserve put further rate cuts on hold. After cutting rates three times in the latter half of 2024 for a total of 1%, the Fed is taking a break. While the Fed is still forecasting that inflation will trend lower by year-end, it is concerned that the trend has been stalling […]
Jan 30, 2025
The Chart That Should Worry The Fed
Personal consumption represents over two-thirds of economic activity. Therefore, consumers’ ability to spend, i.e., income, is vital to the economy. Taking it one more step, confidence in the security of our jobs and wages drives the marginal consumption behaviors of most citizens. With that, we share a chart that should worry the Fed. The chart […]
Jan 29, 2025
Emerging Junk in Demand
Bloomberg wrote a fascinating article showing that the speculative environment gripping crypto markets and some stocks has spread to the junkiest of junk bonds. Their article, Traders Asking “Why Not?” Rush Into Venezuela and Lebanon Bonds, speaks to “a massive rally in emerging market junk bonds.” They focus on debt from Venezuela and Lebanon in […]
Jan 28, 2025
Strategic Crypto Stockpile And Political Uncertainty
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are hitting record highs partly due to Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies. One such anticipated policy proposal was the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve. Presumably, this would be similar to currency strategic reserves the US holds but would hold cryptocurrencies. The plan, announced Thursday night, calls the strategic crypto holdings a […]
Jan 27, 2025
New Tenant Rent Prices Plummet
The latest BLS and Cleveland Fed release of their quarterly new tenant rent index was lower by 2.43% year over year and over 5% from the prior quarter. The sharp rate of decline was surprising. Moreover, the update gives us more confidence that inflation is heading toward the Fed’s 2% target. Unlike CPI shelter prices, […]
Jan 24, 2025
The Tariff Rollercoaster
With Donald Trump now officially President, we will learn which campaign promises were rhetoric and negotiating tactics and which he plans to enact. For many economists and nations, tariffs are at the top of the list of importance. China, in particular, closely followed by Canada and Mexico, appears to be at the most risk of […]
Jan 23, 2025
Meme Coins Transfer Wealth Not Create It
A reader of Tuesday’s Daily Commentary made a very astute comment. The title of the Commentary was “Trump Meme Coin Creates Billions Out Of Thin Air.” It doesn’t create anything… It transfers He is 100% correct. Meme coins and other forms of cryptocurrency do not create dollars. They transfer dollars from one person or entity […]
Jan 22, 2025
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