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Bond Vigilantes Take Cover As GDP And CPI Estimates Plummet
What a difference a month makes. In mid to late January, the bond vigilantes were shorting bonds while warning that bond yields would increase due to a robust economy, large federal deficits, and higher inflation. The ten-year US Treasury note yield peaked at 4.89% on January 13. Since then, it has fallen .72% to 4.17%. […]
Mar 5, 2025
The Strategic Crypto Reserve
On Sunday night, President Trump announced the much-anticipated Strategic Crypto Reserve. While the US already has oil and gold reserves for strategic purposes, the purpose of the Strategic Crypto Reserve is unclear. Per the Wall Street Journal quote below, the reserve sounds more like an investment in an industry than a strategic reserve in the […]
Mar 4, 2025
The Trade Deficit Plummets On Tariff Frontrunning
The January Goods Trade Deficit fell to a record -$153 billion versus expectations of -$116 billion. Moreover, as we share below, courtesy of MacroBond, the monthly decline of $31 billion is more than double any other instance since 1955. Imports rose by 12% while exports increased by 2%. The steep decline in the trade deficit […]
Mar 3, 2025
Retail Investors Are Suddenly Bearish
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator claims that 60.6% of the retail investors are bearish. The percentage of bears in its survey increased sharply from 40.5% at the prior reading on February 19. The AAII retail investor survey is now the most bearish it has been since September 2022. More stunning, this […]
Feb 28, 2025
Consumers Are Losing Confidence
Consumer Confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, shows consumers are starting to lose economic confidence. Given that consumer spending drives the economy and influences inflation, confidence and the means to spend can significantly impact markets. Based on recent job data, the means (i.e., wages) to consume appear to be in […]
Feb 27, 2025
The Trump 2.0 Put: Got Bonds?
During Donald Trump’s first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market’s belief that Trump believed the stock market’s performance was a referendum on his presidency. Accordingly, investors thought that Trump would do everything he could to backstop the stock market if it fell. Thus, some investors […]
Feb 26, 2025
Cash At Buffett’s Berkshire Continues To Grow
In its annual letter to shareholders this past weekend, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had increased its cash holdings to $334 billion. As the Financial Times chart on the right shows, Berkshire’s cash balances have more than doubled over the last few quarters to its highest level. Additionally, cash as a percentage of […]
Feb 25, 2025
Government Job Cuts May Be The Tip Of The Iceberg
The coming unprecedented government job cuts will undoubtedly impact the job market. Given the labor market’s importance to Fed policy and the economy, it’s worth fully appreciating the size of the government workforce and other employees whose jobs might be affected. The following graph, courtesy of John Burns Research & Consulting, shows that 3.8 million […]
Feb 24, 2025
Alien Technology: Are ETFs Getting Too Creative?
The ETF industry has undoubtedly gotten creative over the last few years. However, nothing tops the latest ETF proposed by Tuttle Capital. Per its SEC registration, the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure AI Powered ETF (UFOD) will purportedly invest over 80% of the fund’s assets in companies that they believe “have potential exposure to advanced or […]
Feb 21, 2025
Wages And Rents Portend Easing Inflation Tailwinds
Wages and rents were two of the most impactful factors driving higher inflation and, of recent importance, keeping it stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. As we will share, the good news is that wage growth and rents should be easing. The graph on the right shows that the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker is […]
Feb 20, 2025
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