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The Sentiment Bark Is Worse Than The Market’s Bite
The old saying that the bark is worse than the bite is a good description of the current state of the stock market and investors’ sentiment. The following quote from a recent Commentary and our most recent article (summarized and linked below) point to the unusually poor sentiment. The AAII retail investor survey is now […]
Mar 19, 2025
Transportation Stocks Continue To Lead Markets Lower
In our Commentary last week, we noted that Delta shares were down over ten percent due to their weak economic outlook. Per our Commentary- “Delta’s CEO offered similar caution: The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand. He also […]
Mar 18, 2025
Orange Juice And Egg Prices Provide Welcome Relief
As we have mentioned numerous times, consumer sentiment greatly impacts economic activity. Accordingly, the price activity of particular goods can have an outsized influence on consumer inflation views. For example, orange juice and egg prices have been leading some consumers to have flashbacks of the recent high inflation. Based on the recent price trends of […]
Mar 17, 2025
The Rotation To Value From Growth: What Comes Next?
In hindsight, markets are easy to assess, yet extremely challenging to forecast. For example, as we will show, it’s undeniable that value, particularly large-cap value stocks, have been in vogue during the recent decline, while growth is being kicked to the curb. This rotation from growth to value is an example of how investors rotate […]
Mar 14, 2025
CPI Is Cooler Than Expected
Following a hot January CPI set of inflation data, the BLS CPI report cooled down in February. Headline CPI rose +0.2% versus +0.3% consensus and +0.5% in January. Core CPI was also +0.2% for the month. The year-over-year headline and core rates fell 0.2% from last month’s figures to 2.8% and 3.1%. The 3.1% core […]
Mar 13, 2025
Buy The Dip Or Sell The Rip?
The rally over the last two years has helped investors forget that markets also go down. After two +20% consecutive years, a sudden 8% drop from recent highs has investors panicking. Bear in mind, no pun intended, that the S&P 500 is only down 4% for 2025. Consider the graph below. It shows that the […]
Mar 12, 2025
Transition Is Worrying The Markets
In an interview on Fox this past weekend, Donald Trump was asked if he was expecting a recession. He replied: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.” Alongside his comments regarding “a period of transition,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states, “We’re seeing […]
Mar 11, 2025
The Market Is Not As Volatile As Many Fear
The CNN fear greed index of investor sentiment has fallen to “extreme fear” at 18 on a scale of 0 to 100. Moreover, those expressing bearish sentiment in the AAII individual investor survey are above 60%, which is only the sixth time since 1987 that it has been that high. Watching CNBC or Bloomberg might […]
Mar 10, 2025
Tesla Shareholders Are Banking On More Than Car Production
The graphs below highlight how expensive Tesla shares are compared to its competitors. The scatter plot on the left shows that Tesla shareholders are willing to pay an exorbitant price for its relatively minimal sales. Tesla’s market cap of $942 billion is $80 billion more than the combined market cap of the following fifteen largest […]
Mar 7, 2025
Crude Oil Prices Are Sitting On Big Support
As the FINVIZ graph below shows, crude oil prices are on a significant support level. In technical analysis, the more a price bounces off a line, the more critical that trend line becomes. Furthermore, the blue trend line, which has supported crude oil prices since 2021, was a resistance line in 2019. The bottom line […]
Mar 6, 2025
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