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A Fed Balancing Act: Oil, Iran, Slower Growth
Few Fed meetings in recent memory have presented the FOMC with a more uncomfortable set of competing signals than yesterday’s. The Iranian conflict and its impact on oil and oil-dependent product prices have created the potential for an inflationary impulse, yet higher oil prices would likely slow economic activity, leading to higher unemployment. As if […]
Mar 19, 2026
M2 Money Supply: Is 45% Growth Really Inflationary?
A client sent us the quote below from Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis and asked for our comments regarding gold and the growth of the M2 money supply: “…if you are taking profits in gold and putting that into cash Dollars, thinking that’s a good idea, then go to the St. Louis Fed’s site […]
Mar 18, 2026
The Brent WTI Spread: The Market’s Take On Iran
When oil-related geopolitical risk flares up, most investors take their cue from oil prices. While energy prices are vital to monitor, far fewer investors track the telling price spread between Brent and WTI oil. West Texas Intermediate or WTI is the US domestic oil price benchmark, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, and largely reflects North American […]
Mar 17, 2026
Data Center Leases: Is Spending Mindful Of Revenues?
A recent Bloomberg article, “Microsoft, Meta Add to $700 Billion Surge in Data Center Leases,” reminds us that the massive growth in data centers will continue for the foreseeable future. However, it also warns that the massive investments in AI infrastructure by the largest AI companies exceed what their financial statements suggest. The article notes […]
Mar 16, 2026
Amazon Debt: Great Demand Despite Concerns
The technology sector has been on edge in recent months, in part due to the evolving landscape of AI innovation funding. More specifically, equity investors of the largest AI companies are growing increasingly concerned because debt is being used more frequently as cash flows/profits are no longer sufficient to fully cover capital expenditures. Oracle sparked […]
Mar 13, 2026
Core CPI Lowest In 5 Years: Pre-Conflict Inflation Snapshot
The February CPI report was largely as expected. The month-over-month headline figure rose by 0.3%, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by only 0.2%, dropping the annual rate to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. The graph below shows that CPI and Core CPI continue to slowly decline […]
Mar 12, 2026
Will Oil Prices Handcuff The Fed?
After Friday’s weak employment report, there was a rebirth of the once-dead argument for a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. Over the last six months, the economy has shed 6,000 jobs in aggregate, including three months in which job growth shrank. Further consider that the civilian workforce has been growing at 184k people […]
Mar 11, 2026
The Oil Curve: Scary Headlines vs. Market Expectations
Rather than relying on Wall Street forecasts, scary headlines, and fear-mongering social media posts, the oil futures curve provides the collective judgment of future oil prices from the most informed and financially committed market participants — traders, producers, refiners, and hedgers. Oil, like most commodities, trades in a series of contracts based on future delivery […]
Mar 10, 2026
The Dollar Not Oil Is The Real Story
The Iran conflict has dominated the headlines, with the financial media primarily focusing on rising oil prices. While higher oil prices can certainly impact the economy, the dollar’s surge, which we hear little of, is an equally consequential market and economic development. Moreover, the appreciating dollar’s ripple effects are being felt across asset classes in […]
Mar 9, 2026
Will Oil Prices Unleash A Wave Of Inflation?
Bloomberg writes: “Iran War Oil ShockThreatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation.” To be fair, the article is not as pessimistic as the title suggests. However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation is gaining popularity and merits discussion. We start with math to address the historical relationship […]
Mar 6, 2026
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