AI capex and earnings are now so tightly tied that spending doesn’t have to fall to hurt profits. It only has to stop accelerating. Almost half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth this year traces back to one activity: companies buying chips, servers, power gear, and concrete to build artificial intelligence. That’s the estimate Goldman […]
With the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, buying bonds at 5% is the first real alternative that stock investors have had in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield closed September north of 5.2%, the highest level in roughly 24 years. Most of the headlines treat that as a warning. I […]
The sequence of return risk is the quiet reason two retirees with identical average returns can end up in very different places. Let’s start with an easy example. Two people retire on the same day with the same million dollars. They have the same portfolio and the same 30-year average return. They should both live […]
The headlines have never sounded scarier, and the market keeps setting records, which is exactly why investor optimism wins over a full cycle, and why your own behavior is the real risk. Hope is not an investment strategy. Every advisor has said some version of that line, and it holds up. You cannot pray for […]
Consensus earnings estimates now sit close to 50% above trend, and that gap is exactly where an earnings mean reversion tends to begin. This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting […]
“How To Win The Long Game” is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management. Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management […]
“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management Chapter 3 of this series, linked above, ended with […]
“Math of Loss” is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management The first two articles in this series were about […]
“Investor Psychology” is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management In the first part of this series, I promised that […]