Consensus earnings estimates now sit close to 50% above trend, and that gap is exactly where an earnings mean reversion tends to begin. This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting […]
“How To Win The Long Game” is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management. Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management […]
“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management Chapter 3 of this series, linked above, ended with […]
“Math of Loss” is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management The first two articles in this series were about […]
“Investor Psychology” is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management In the first part of this series, I promised that […]
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management There is a chart that lands in your […]
“Earnings drive market outcomes. In 151 years, every single 20% market decline was accompanied by a double-digit earnings decline, with zero exceptions.” Every few months, a new reason to sell arrives. Capital spending is too high. The deficit is unsustainable. Oil just broke out. The conclusion attached to each is always the same: investors are […]
Lately, it seems like you can’t open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is everywhere: bonds are broken, the old rules no longer apply, and investors should modernize by swapping the bonds in their portfolio for Bitcoin, gold, or whatever alternative the asset management industry is […]
Every time interest rates rise, the “bond bears” flood the media with commentary suggesting US Treasuries are no longer a “safe asset.” The 30-year Treasury bond closed last Thursday at 5.17%. Meanwhile, the 10-year touched 4.71%, its highest print since January 2025, while Brent crude pushed above $100 as the Iran conflict escalated. Add a […]