The increase in speculative risks, combined with excess leverage, leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future. The only missing ingredient for such a correction is the catalyst to bring “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace.
You would think that with the U.S. taking out a top Iranian commander, threats of military action flying between the U.S. and Iran, not to mention the "Selective Service" website crashing over concerns of World War III, the markets would be in full "sell" mode. If you thought that would be the case, you were wrong.
“Don’t fight the Fed” That is the current mantra of the market as we begin 2020, and it certainly seems to be the right call. Over the last few months, the Federal Reserve has continued its “QE-Not QE” operations, which has dramatically expanded its balance sheet. Many argue, rightly, the current monetary interventions by the […]
J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels. GTA […]
J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you their valuable S&P 500 Valuation Chart Book. This unique analysis provides an invaluable long term perspective of equity valuations. If you are interested in learning more about their services, please connect with them.
I was stunned by a recent article from Marshall Auerback via The Nation entitled “Why Democrats Need To Stop Worrying And Love The Deficit.” “Delivering on big progressive ideas like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal will never happen until Democrats get over their fear of red ink.” While the article is long, […]
On the “Real Investment Hour” on Tuesday night, I addressed the issue of price versus fundamentals. In the short-term, a period of one-year or less, political, fundamental, and economic data has very little influence over the market. This is especially the case in a late-stage bull market advance, such as the one we are currently […]
In “Part 1” of this series, I discussed at length whether Dr. Robert Shiller’s 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio was indeed just “B.S.” The primary message, of course, was simply: “Valuation measures are simply just that – a measure of current valuation. If you ‘overpay’ for something today, the future net return will be lower than […]
Shiller’s Cape – Part 2 “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” – Warren Buffett One of the hallmarks of very late stage bull market cycles is the inevitable bashing of long-term valuation metrics. In the late 90’s, if you were buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock, it was mocked as “driving Dad’s old Pontiac.” In […]