As the stock market hit all-time highs this past week, there remains an interesting disconnect from the more dour economic concerns of the average American. A recent survey by Axios, a left-leaning website that supports the current Administration, addressed this issue. “Poll after poll shows that the country is bummed out by the economy. Voters blame Biden. Nearly four in […]
Democrats should start worrying about the level of debt and the increasing deficit. I previously discussed this issue when President Obama held the White House, when Marshall Auerback, via the Nation, wrote: “Delivering on big progressive ideas like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal will never happen until Democrats get over their fear […]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators. Each month, economists, the media, and investors pour over various mainstream economic indicators, from GDP to employment and inflation, to determine what markets will likely do next. While economic numbers like GDP or the monthly non-farm payroll […]
Throughout history, bull market cycles make up on one-half of the “full market” cycle. During every “bull market” cycle, the market and economy build up excesses which must ultimately be reversed through a market reversion and economic recession. In the other words, “What goes up, must come down.”
We have previously warned that employment data was suggesting the economy was much weaker than expected. As such, it was only a function of time until an exogenous, unexpected, event began the cascade of a recession and bear market.
The recession caused by the Covid-19 virus will be deeper and last longer than the Financial Crisis. It will take a long time, if ever, for the same sentiment to return. Spending will not recover.
The market has had a sharp rally over the last couple of weeks, which has investors feeling all "bullish" again hoping the crash in March was just an anomaly. However, there are some questions that "bullish investors" need to answer before assuming the markets are "all clear" of what ails them.
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
The Fed is hopeful they can inflate another asset bubble to restore consumer confidence and stabilize the functioning of the credit markets. The problem is that since the Fed never unwound their previous policies, current policies are having a much more muted effect.