Daily Market Commentary Dow Slides While Nasdaq Rallies: Omen Or Rotation? Blog Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back Daily Market Commentary Low Jobless Claims Are ‘Half A Misnomer’ Bull Bear Report The Fed Rate Hike Won’t Fix The Inflation It Targets Daily Market Commentary A Hike Like No Other Blog K-Shaped Economy: Reality Or Media-Driven Perception Daily Market Commentary Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon Blog Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed’s Job? Daily Market Commentary Fed Hikes: Then What? Daily Market Commentary Amodei Says Slow Down: Trump And China Say No
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Tuesday — September 22, 2026
Houston, Texas
Search Results

feed

223 results found

The Narratives Change. Markets Don’t. Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

The Narratives Change. Markets Don’t.

Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce highly suggests that the April correction is complete and that market control returns to the Bulls. As such, there is very little resistance between current levels and all-time highs. However, as noted last week, with the markets still overbought on a momentum basis, further consolidation will be unsurprising before an advance to new highs occurs. With the MACD sell signal triggered and money flows declining, another test of the 200-DMA next week would be unsurprising.

Lance Roberts 17 min read
Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again. Economics
— Economics · 1 year ago

Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again.

Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the “deficit has become critical.” ” “It’s like … I’m a doctor, and I’m looking at the patient, and I’ve said, you’re having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and […]

Lance Roberts 10 min read
Narratives vs. Fundamentals: Battle In The Bond Market Invest
— Invest · 1 year ago

Narratives vs. Fundamentals: Battle In The Bond Market

On January 8, 2025, we answered many of your questions with an article entitled Why Are Bond Yields Rising? Since then, bond yields initially fell but have recently risen back to early January levels. Unsurprisingly, our email boxes are again filled with the same questions we got in early January. This article presents a different […]

Michael Lebowitz 9 min read
Why Are Yields Surging In Japan? Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 1 year ago

Why Are Yields Surging In Japan?

The short answer is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is letting the market set yields. For years, the BOJ has run an extremely loose monetary policy, including capping yields at extremely low levels and negative interest rates. Limited economic growth and disinflation made such a policy possible. However, inflationary pressures and a weak yen […]

RIA Team 5 min read
The Anchoring Problem And How To Solve It Invest
— Invest · 1 year ago

The Anchoring Problem And How To Solve It

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a “Markets In Turmoil” narrative, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we […]

Lance Roberts 10 min read
Recession Probabilities Decline Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Recession Probabilities Decline

This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown, the markets are reaching decently overbought levels after being extremely oversold. This suggests that at least for now, the "easy money" has been made. With the market above the 200, and above the 50 and 20-DMA, pullbacks should be between 5600 and 5800. Investors can use such a pullback to increase portfolio equity exposures and reduce hedges accordingly. Conversely, 5000 to 5200 becomes the next critical target if those lower supports are violated. However, such would require some unexpected event to unfold.

Lance Roberts 19 min read
Bank Regulators Will Help The Treasury Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 1 year ago

Bank Regulators Will Help The Treasury

Per an article in the Financial Times titled US Poised To Dial Back Rules Imposed In Wake of 2008 Crisis, US bank regulators are preparing to reduce bank capital requirements. Of particular interest to the bond market is the supplementary leverage ratio, better known as SLR. Unlike other risk-based capital rules that banks adhere to, […]

RIA Team 6 min read
Economic Decline Gains Momentum Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Economic Decline Gains Momentum

This past week, two reports confirmed the economy is slowing. First, there was the weak GDP report, which showed growth of roughly one percent, after discounting the impact of the trade deficit. Secondly, while the employment number was higher than expected, the job growth trend is also slowing. However, those reports should have tempered market enthusiasm as they reduced hopes for Fed rate cuts. However, the market pushed higher as investors raced to jump back into "risk assets" as the market cleared initial resistance at the 20-DMA and reversed all of the "Liberation Day" losses.

Lance Roberts 20 min read
The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 1 year ago

The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype

Recently, we have seen claims that the “collapsing” dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we have experienced much more significant dollar declines without an inflationary impulse. The dollar has fallen […]

RIA Team 7 min read