Is A Squeeze In Bonds Coming?
As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions […]
The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?
Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets […]
Consecutive Weekly Declines & Fading Rallies
March closed as the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since 2022, with the index down roughly 7% on the quarter and every member of the Magnificent Seven finishing in the red. This past holiday-shortened trading week saw a sharp reflexive relief rally from the oversold conditions we discussed last week.
Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Volume Profiles: Eyeing Resistance From Trapped Longs?
Volume profiling provides unique insight into the profit-and-loss position of recent investors by identifying price levels at which significant buying and selling have occurred. Areas of high volume can act as powerful support and resistance levels because they represent prices […]
The Kohn Solution For An Uncertain Fed
Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled “How to Respond to Oil Shocks.” His analysis draws on the Fed’s history to address how it should respond to today’s oil shock. While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf […]
Beta: A Powerful But Faulty Tool For Managing Risk
When investors want to reduce risk, one commonly used tool is beta. For instance, an investor may sell higher-beta stocks and replace them with lower-beta ones to cushion against an expected market decline. Such a strategy is intuitive and widely […]
Why Gold Is Failing As A Safe Haven
There seems to be widespread disbelief among gold investors, as gold prices have fallen by over 10% since the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28th. Many investors think that gold is a safe haven that should do […]
Stock Market Breadth: Warning Or Opportunity?
The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% from its January 27 all-time high. Unsurprisingly, the media is full of “red” headlines discussing the seemingly “endless” correction we are in. Unsurprisingly, previously complacent investors are now anxious, as nothing seems to […]