The LENDX Liquidity Trap
The Stone Ridge Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund (LENDX) is the latest to face liquidity pressure amid growing concerns about private credit. As an interval fund, LENDX’s shares aren’t publicly traded, so investors who want out must tender their shares […]
CDX: Credit Spreads Are Flashing A Warning
This week gave investors a brief exhale — and then took it back as Monday opened with genuine relief after news broke that a U.S.-led coalition would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. On that news, oil pulled back sharply, the S&P surged 1.2%, and the Nasdaq led with a 1.4% gain. It was the index's best single session in over a month. However, that optimism didn't survive the week.
The Bear Market Hiding Beneath The Calm Surface
Many investors consider a 20% drawdown or more to be a bear market. Based solely on that definition, the table below, courtesy of Morgan Stanley, shows that 42%, or over 200 of the S&P 500 members, are in a bear […]
The Dollar’s Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
A Fed Balancing Act: Oil, Iran, Slower Growth
Few Fed meetings in recent memory have presented the FOMC with a more uncomfortable set of competing signals than yesterday’s. The Iranian conflict and its impact on oil and oil-dependent product prices have created the potential for an inflationary impulse, […]
M2 Money Supply: Is 45% Growth Really Inflationary?
A client sent us the quote below from Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis and asked for our comments regarding gold and the growth of the M2 money supply: “…if you are taking profits in gold and putting that into […]
Private Credit Stress: Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?
The Fed is governed by its dual Congressional mandates of price stability and maximum employment. At times, however, the Fed throws these mandates out the window to protect the financial system. With liquidity and credit stress in the private credit […]
The Brent WTI Spread: The Market’s Take On Iran
When oil-related geopolitical risk flares up, most investors take their cue from oil prices. While energy prices are vital to monitor, far fewer investors track the telling price spread between Brent and WTI oil. West Texas Intermediate or WTI is […]
Data Center Leases: Is Spending Mindful Of Revenues?
A recent Bloomberg article, “Microsoft, Meta Add to $700 Billion Surge in Data Center Leases,” reminds us that the massive growth in data centers will continue for the foreseeable future. However, it also warns that the massive investments in AI […]