Search Results for: 2026

Expected and historical (realized) volatility are sending investors a puzzling signal. Because of the Iran conflict, intense oil price swings, and rising interest rates, the VIX, or implied volatility (what options markets are pricing in as future fear), is elevated. […]

This past week was another disappointing one. Markets opened the week surging after President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S.-Iran talks had been "very good and productive" and that he was halting strikes on Iranian power plants. Brent crude fell more than 10% in a single session, its biggest single-day drop since early March, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15%. It was the kind of relief rally that tempts investors into believing a corner has been turned. It wasn't.

Geopolitical events are among the most reliable drivers of bad investment decisions. When headlines are alarming, and markets are volatile, as they are today, investors instinctively overweight worst-case scenarios and underweight the likelihood that the situation resolves more quietly than […]

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.

Albert Edwards from Societe Generale posted a graph similar to the one on the left below. It tracks the unemployment rate and its 3-year moving average. The red arrows signify every time the unemployment rate rose above the moving average. […]

Some media pundits are warning the public that high oil prices will spark a repeat of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. High oil prices will feed through to inflation; however, the economic, monetary policy, and geopolitical environments of the […]

Our article title is certainly scary. The question we pose has become a hot topic following the release of “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” by Citrini Research. While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we […]

According to a recent analysis by the Wall Street Journal, corporate treasurers are fundamentally shifting how they approach the capital markets to navigate record-breaking supply. Rather than offering debt in monolithic blocks, firms are increasingly utilizing multiple corporate debt tranches […]

There are hundreds of technical indicators that market analysts track, but only one gets a live television chyron the moment it breaks. The 200-day moving average (200-DMA) is the single most widely followed technical level in global financial markets, and […]