Government Debt: Not What The Doom Crowd Thinks It Is
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Can Warsh Reform The Fed
On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate for his nomination hearing for the Fed Chair. The biggest takeaway is Warsh’s desire to “reform” the Fed. Based on his appearance, reform seems to cover the following three areas: Regarding current […]
GFC 2.0 Or False Alarm Part 2
In Part One, we explored how leverage and derivatives turned subprime mortgages into a crisis that nearly brought down the global financial system. With a better understanding of the derivatives and leverage that led to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), […]
CAR Is Racing Higher
Our title above about Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares is a gross understatement. Since March 20th, CAR has risen nearly 500%, as we share below. While there are, and were, some favorable tailwinds driving the upward trend, such as rising […]
CPU vs. GPU: The Changing Semiconductor Landscape
Since the start of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) is up 33% compared with the broader market, which is up only 4%. The primary rationale for the significant outperformance appears to be the insatiable demand for AI […]
The Confidence Gap: Noise Or Omen?
As shown in the graph below, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauges tells us that consumer confidence is now the worst its been since the survey began in 1952. Despite the confidence gauges being lower than during peak Covid […]
Market Lesson: Why Panic Is A Costly Mistake
The Iran shock erased 18% from valuations and fully recovered in two weeks. Investors who panicked missed it all. Here’s what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now. The stock […]
Short Covering Rally Or Is The Bull Market Back?
The market didn't just recover this week. It made new history. Monday opened with the S&P 500 erasing all losses since the Iran war began. The market rose 1% to its highest close since late February. Driving that rally were reports that Iran had reached out to the Trump administration despite a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The buying accelerated from there. By Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh all-time highs. With investors pricing in an increasingly credible path to a permanent peace deal, the bulls regained control.
Allbirds: Hustling AI To Boost Its Shares
Allbirds, the sustainable sneaker company, has recently fallen on hard times, with revenue down by more than 50% from its peak. To help right the ship, Allbirds is rebranding itself as NewBird AI. Allbirds closed all of its U.S. stores […]