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No Relief At The Pump Despite Crude Falling
Crude peaked at $106 on September 15 and has since fallen nearly 15% to $90. Despite the recent downturn, gasoline futures are up 1.9% over the same period. The margin between the two widened from roughly $40 to $58 per barrel. That is over three times the twenty-year median, $17, and sits in the 99.8th […]
Sep 24, 2026
The FOMC Sees Zero Downside Economic Risks
The graph below, courtesy of Apollo, shows that not one FOMC member sees downside risks to the economy. This must be a very bullish signal, given that most FOMC members are seasoned business veterans or economists. Further, they are supported by over 400 PhD’s in economics. Unfortunately, despite the experience and educational background of the […]
Sep 23, 2026
Dow Slides While Nasdaq Rallies: Omen Or Rotation?
The Dow has lost ground for three weeks running, down nearly 3.5% from its August 28 close, while the Nasdaq 100 is slightly higher over the same period. That performance gap has worried some market pundits, as they say it may be signaling a downturn. While that might be true, we think the performance differential […]
Sep 22, 2026
Low Jobless Claims Are ‘Half A Misnomer’
To justify hiking rates, Kevin Warsh and the Fed painted a rosy picture of the labor market. Interestingly, Warsh did so by citing record low jobless claims. To wit: Unemployment claims, on a four-week moving average, are running at levels consistent with full employment. So, the labor side of the Fed’s congressional remit is in […]
Sep 21, 2026
A Hike Like No Other
We hate to drone on about a Fed rate hike, but we want to stress the risks in the Fed’s 25bps hike, as it is unlike any other hike we have seen in over thirty years. Let’s contrast it with every Fed hiking cycle since 1994. Today’s starting point is unlike those instances; economic growth […]
Sep 18, 2026
Another Hike By Year End And No Cuts On The Horizon
The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]
Sep 17, 2026
Fed Hikes: Then What?
Our title, “Fed Hikes,” is a bit presumptuous, but with Fed Funds futures assigning a 90% chance of a hike this afternoon, it’s likely a done deal. Instead of debating whether the Fed hikes, the more useful question for investors is: what comes next? Three things from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will likely put us in […]
Sep 16, 2026
Amodei Says Slow Down: Trump And China Say No
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” on his personal website last weekend that is weighing on AI stocks. Amodei argues AI labs need to slow development to manage the risks that come with capabilities improving faster than our ability to understand and control them. Sam Altman and Elon Musk […]
Sep 15, 2026
Weak Buyback & Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals For Bonds
Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholders are willing to sell their existing holdings back to the Treasury at the offered price. Thus, a “weak” or undersized buyback […]
Sep 14, 2026
Crisis Will Test Our Mettle – Lessons From 9/11
Twenty-five years ago today, nearly 3,000 people lost their lives in the September 11th attacks, a tragedy that reshaped our country. We pause to honor those who lost their lives in the event. In the years since the crisis, financial markets have absorbed the shock, adapted, and moved forward. Beyond remembering the event and honoring […]
Sep 11, 2026
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