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A Rising Dollar Becomes A Headwind
Since early September, the dollar Index has risen nearly 4%, reaching its highest level in over a year. The continued rally over the last few days is strange, since October rate-hike odds collapsed from above 60% to roughly 25% on a weak payroll number and less-than-expected PCE price data. Softer policy expectations normally weaken a […]
Oct 6, 2026
Jobs Recovery Or One-Off Blip?
Last month, the BLS reported a stunning gain of 162k jobs in August. Accordingly, economists began to think the job market malaise may finally be thawing. The latest BLS report makes the August data seem like a one-off blip versus a trend change. Last Friday’s report showed a pick-up of only 29k jobs, about a […]
Oct 5, 2026
Can Anthropic Outearn Its Obligations?
Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters and the Financial Times, shows the company is growing faster than ever while committing to obligations that dwarf its earnings. To wit, annual revenue rose roughly 12x in 2025 to $4.6 billion, from about $400 million in 2024. Its first-quarter 2026 revenue was $4.73 billion, and its […]
Oct 2, 2026
The Swap Market Says Treasury And AI Debt Is Not A Problem
Monday’s Tweet of the Day in the Daily Commentary highlighted rising swap spreads and noted that Treasury issuance is not the problem many pundits make it out to be. Swap spreads are a great gauge for the health and liquidity of the US Treasury market, so it’s worth appreciating the Tweet below. A swap spread […]
Oct 1, 2026
Higher Yields Flipped The Math In The Investors’ Favor
Will 5.00% be the approximate ceiling for Treasury yields? Maybe, maybe not, but for bond investors, the risk-reward math is becoming very enticing even if yields rise further. Today’s yields provide a loss cushion that did not exist three years ago, and a return asymmetry heavily in investors’ favor. To appreciate this concept, consider that […]
Sep 30, 2026
McDonald’s At Four-Year Lows Isn’t As Worrisome As Some Fear
McDonald’s (MCD) hit four-year lows last week, down 22% on the year and 31% from its March high, marking a seventh straight weekly loss, its worst streak since 2014. Many investors look at a stock like MCD as a verdict on the American consumer. While its sales can be telling, internal issues are driving the […]
Sep 29, 2026
CMBS Losses Reach The AAA Tranche Again
Pimco faces losses of more than $35 million on a commercial mortgage bond tied to Philadelphia’s Centre Square office towers, according to Bloomberg. The complex was appraised at $471 million in 2019. Last month, a judge approved its sale for $70 million. That 85% drop pushes CMBS losses to the very top of the capital […]
Sep 28, 2026
Will Political Pressure Or Economic Hardship End The War?
Media speculation about a possible agreement between Iran and the US often focuses on President Trump’s incentives to end the war. In particular, high gasoline and diesel prices are creating real political pressure heading into the midterms, as we share below. Thus, the reasoning goes that Trump may cave to political pressure to reduce energy […]
Sep 25, 2026
No Relief At The Pump Despite Crude Falling
Crude peaked at $106 on September 15 and has since fallen nearly 15% to $90. Despite the recent downturn, gasoline futures are up 1.9% over the same period. The margin between the two widened from roughly $40 to $58 per barrel. That is over three times the twenty-year median, $17, and sits in the 99.8th […]
Sep 24, 2026
The FOMC Sees Zero Downside Economic Risks
The graph below, courtesy of Apollo, shows that not one FOMC member sees downside risks to the economy. This must be a very bullish signal, given that most FOMC members are seasoned business veterans or economists. Further, they are supported by over 400 PhD’s in economics. Unfortunately, despite the experience and educational background of the […]
Sep 23, 2026
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