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Why Small Caps Have Recently Traded Like A Bond Proxy
The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks has fallen 8.2% since late June and has not made a new high in four months, a stretch during which the S&P 500 repeatedly set records. However, they have been trading better recently as bond yields have fallen. That correlation is no coincidence, and understanding why small-cap stocks […]
Oct 22, 2026
Neoclouds And Hyperscalers: Same Concept, Different Risks
Elice Group went public on South Korea’s Kosdaq exchange yesterday and fell roughly 30%. A week earlier, Nvidia-backed Firmus shelved a planned $5 billion IPO. In the same vein, as we discussed in CoreWeave Shares Tumble As Its Debt Flounders, CoreWeave’s 2032 debt now yields near 15%, up from below 10% a week earlier. To […]
Oct 21, 2026
The Misleading Tech Sell-Off
The technology sector (XLK) fell 5.3% over the past two weeks, but that figure is misleading. Two of its largest members, Apple and Microsoft, rose by 2%+ over the period, and Google and Meta kept pace with the S&P 500’s 1.5% decline. The damage in the technology sector was mainly in semiconductors, with the SOX […]
Oct 20, 2026
Warsh Says Little: Market Hears Hold
Kevin Warsh spoke Friday at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok. He gave little indication of whether the Fed would hold rates or increase them at the coming meeting on October 28. To that end, he said: “I don’t prejudge meetings,” noting at the September meeting the Committee “made very clear that we would deliver […]
Oct 19, 2026
CoreWeave Shares Tumble As Its Debt Flounders
CoreWeave shares have fallen by nearly 50% since April, including a 15% decline on Wednesday. More concerning, its 9.625% notes maturing in 2032 traded for less than 80 cents on the dollar. That equates to a yield of nearly 15%. For context, the yield was below 10% earlier this week. Its five-year credit default swap […]
Oct 16, 2026
CPI Hotter Than Expected: Is A Hike Back On The Table?
As we noted in prior commentaries, last month’s softer-than-expected CPI and PCE reports, along with weak labor data, gave the Fed room to wait on further rate hikes. Yesterday’s CPI data takes some of it back. September headline CPI rose 0.6% for the month, matching expectations, and 3.7% over twelve months against 3.6% expected. Core […]
Oct 15, 2026
What The NFL Can Teach Us About Risk Management
Diversification is the practice of accepting a lower potential return to reduce risk and increase the likelihood of reaching your financial goals. A recent NFL game clearly illustrated the value of managing portfolio risk. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers led the Dallas Cowboys 24-10 with 8:36 remaining. With the lead and a likely victory, the Buccaneers […]
Oct 14, 2026
OpenAI Rains On The Tech Parade
Over the last couple of months, the technology sector has grossly outperformed the market, as many other sectors have fallen victim to higher yields and oil prices. While seemingly immune to the bond market, Tech stocks were hit late last week after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching […]
Oct 13, 2026
Bond Auctions: You Never Hear About The Good Ones
A weak Treasury auction brings doom-and-gloom headlines, while strong ones go largely unnoticed. Simply, the good auctions don’t feed the bearish bond narrative. Despite bond bears warning yields will hit 6% or higher, demand for this past week’s 10- and 30-year auctions was off the charts. The 10-year note auction on Wednesday sold $39 billion […]
Oct 12, 2026
A Record Number Of Negative Beta Stocks
According to the graph on the left, Evercore counts 140 S&P 500 members with a negative beta, the highest on record. On the right side, that measure for the Russell 3000 stands at 373 stocks, more than 10x its long-term average of 36. That is 6.5 standard deviations from the mean and, statistically speaking, an […]
Oct 9, 2026
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