“The sentence should have been: ‘I don’t see any reason why I wouldn’t’ or ‘why it wouldn’t be Russia’. Sort of a double negative…” – President Trump
Emma Gonzalez, the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School student famously declared “we call B.S.” to the President, lawmakers and gun advocates after the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida months ago.
Well, I call B.S. on the markets (on fundamental and valuation grounds).
Likewise in the corridors of the New York Stock Exchange and on the sets of the business media we are asked to believe in another new paradigm of a “long boom” uninterrupted by the emergence of a number of adverse headwinds (monetary pivot, ambiguous indicators of global economic growth, the competition from short term interest rates (the three month T bill has just eclipsed 2% for the first time in a decade) and the risks of policy mistakes, among other issues). We are asked to bear witness to the products and strategies (that worship at the altar of price momentum) and, for periods of time, limit real price discovery.
Reality, not spin, will prevail in the fullness of time.
I call B.S. and I remain substantially net short.