Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While that may hold some truth today and for the next few months, some of the world’s largest oil producers are ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz is not the lynchpin it […]
As we wrote in Yesterday’s Commentary, the broad market indexes have surged since the April lows, driven largely by a handful of technology and AI stocks and the benefit of massive options volumes. Among the leaders is Nvidia (NVDA), climbing nearly 40% from the April lows. Tomorrow, NVDA reports earnings, which, given its leadership role […]
There is plenty in the media about whether this recent market surge is driven by strong earnings and upwardly revised earnings estimates, or by market mechanics. While earnings have been impressive, the bulk of the fundamental performance has been driven by a handful of AI/technology companies. Similarly, while the broad market indexes have performed well, […]
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires this Friday, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor. The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership. Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come […]
Investors are optimistic that the Wednesday kickoff of the US-China trade summit, featuring President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, will result in a durable deal. The current hope is for an agreement currently labeled as a “Board of Trade” framework. Such a pact would create a trade mechanism in which each side […]
Since the start of 2024, McDonald’s (MCD) stock has fallen 7% while the S&P 500 has risen over 50%. More recently, since the start of hostilities with Iran, MCD is down nearly 20% while the broader market recovered initial losses and rallied to record highs. It’s not just fast food giant MCD trading poorly. Many […]
We recently read someone’s take that the graph below decisively points to the “bond market being under serious pressure.” The graph, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows that the yield on the ten-year US Treasury note is about 1% more than the earnings yield on the S&P 500. The S&P 500 earnings yield is calculated by dividing […]
At the April 29th FOMC meeting, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and two others (Logan and Kashkari) dissented. Unlike most dissents historically, the objection wasn’t about whether to change the Fed Funds rate; it was about the language in the FOMC policy statement. She specifically took issue with the wording: ” In considering the extent […]
When businesses have concerns about the economy, they often lay off or stop hiring temporary workers before firing full-time employees. For that reason, temporary staffing employment has been a reliable early warning signal of labor market weakness and recessions. As we share below, declines in temporary help services employment preceded the last three recessions by […]