Since the Iranian conflict started on February 28, 2026, gold has fallen by about 25%. The decline is shown in the graphic below, but more importantly, we highlight FinViz’s rationale for why gold traded lower on June 10th. That day, they claim war and hot inflation are the culprits for gold falling by 1.1%. We […]
Markets rallied late last week on headlines that a US-Iran peace agreement is close. While the politics are complicated and any potential agreement is fragile, investors should be thinking ahead. What will a peace deal, whether it’s this week or in months, mean for markets? When the initial ceasefire was announced in April, oil prices […]
The coming wave of equity supply we detailed in The IPO Boom is growing. Last week, Alphabet executed an $80 billion secondary equity offering to fund AI infrastructure, including a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway. Now, the Financial Times claims that Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are planning similarly large equity raises to fund […]
After much anticipation, SpaceX (SPCX) begins trading tomorrow. The headlines will focus on the $2 trillion valuation and the likely significant volatility in the price once the SPCX begins trading. Before you decide whether to participate, it is worth understanding what you are actually buying, because SPCX is not one business. It is three very […]
Art Berman wrote an excellent analysis describing the state of the oil market and two distinct messages being debated. The following commentary is from his article: Hormuz: A Logistics Crisis, Not Yet an Inventory Crisis. The debate over the oil market and its impact on prices has sharpened. On one side are analysts like Goldman […]
Simple math suggests that tomorrow’s CPI report for May will likely continue to show high inflation. To compute CPI, the BLS measures gasoline prices during the first three weeks of the reference month. Thus, May CPI will capture gasoline prices from roughly May 1–21, when national averages were still running at recent peaks. The graph […]
New Fed Chairs are often tested early in their terms. For instance, two years after Bernanke took over the Fed, the Financial Crisis kicked into full gear. Janet Yellen was tasked with addressing stock market weakness as the Fed was navigating an exit from QE. Powell’s early test was a rate-hiking cycle that spooked markets […]
The headlines surrounding the SpaceX IPO seem mainly focused on how high the stock will go. There is a more important question stemming from the SpaceX IPO and other large deals that few seem to be asking: where will the money come from? SpaceX is targeting a $1.75-$2.00 trillion valuation and a capital raise of […]
“Never. No. We’re not sellers. We’re only acquiring and holding Bitcoin. That’s our strategy.” — Michael Saylor, Bloomberg, January 2022 Four and a half years later, Strategy’s founder Michael Saylor’s never-sell doctrine is dead. Between May 26 and May 31, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for roughly $2.5 million. The transaction is so small in dollar […]