1,316 results found
Economics
A 5% long bond isn’t the crisis, it’s the receipt, and the fifteen years when money was free did far more damage to growth than normal interest rates ever will. This past week, two charts crossed my desk, arguing the same thing from opposite ends. The Kobeissi Letter flagged that U.S. borrowing rates just hit […]
Daily Market Commentary
Cem Karsan is flagging August 21, the monthly options expiration (OPEX) date, as the setup for what he calls a gamma cliff. On August 21st, one of the year’s larger concentrations of monthly options open interest will expire or roll forward. What happens next is worth watching. Options market makers must hedge their risk by […]
Economics
Japan didn’t just spark a currency crisis; it reminded everyone that the Fed has quietly backstopped the dollar for 60 years. The Yen intervention is not new, and while the “end of fiat, buy gold” crowd is right about the destination, they are wrong about the departure time. Every time somebody touches the plumbing of […]
Daily Market Commentary
According to an article published Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal, more than 40 S&P 500 companies have reported roughly $9.6 billion in tariff refunds. Apple leads at nearly $2.2 billion. Nike follows at $986 million, FedEx at about $800 million, Amazon at $640 million, and GM at $500 million. The timing is awkward. In […]
Daily Market Commentary
Nvidia announced an agreement with Wall Street heavies, Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR. The six Wall Street firms will arrange more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. The firms will create funding vehicles that allow investors to invest money directly in AI data centers in exchange for a share […]
Invest
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review and Outlook. The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long-run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly1.5–3.5% […]
Daily Market Commentary
Greg Abel just completed his first full quarter as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, taking the throne from Warren Buffett. In his first earnings announcement, Abel sent strong signals of a strategic pivot. Most important of these, Berkshire repurchased $4.5 billion of its own stock in the second quarter, its largest quarterly buyback since a […]
Daily Market Commentary
The Tweet on the right below irresponsibly suggests that if SK Hynix shares double, as Cantor Fitzgerald’s $300 target implies, a 2x leveraged fund like SKHA offers “magnified exposure” to that outcome. Assuming the stock doubles, the leveraged trade ETF sounds like easy money. However, even if Cantor is right and the stock doubles, the […]
Economics
A return to sound money has become the rallying cry for a growing crowd of investors, politicians, and commentators who are, understandably, fed up. Fed up with deficits that never shrink, with a national debt north of $39 trillion, with a dollar that buys a little less every year. The pitch is elegant. Back the […]