1,315 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Our most recent article, CFNAI, The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number, shares an important economic metric that many investors tend to ignore. Further, unlike the more popular economic data points, CFNAI is forward-looking. Speaking of economic statistics that are not well covered is the trucking industry. Trucking services account for nearly 6% of GDP; […]
Daily Market Commentary
On the eve of the Hamas raid on Israel, crude oil was trading at $83 a barrel. It declined by $10 in the month leading to the attack. The narrative at the time was that global economic growth was weakening. Remember that the pre-pandemic (2015-2019) average was in the low $50s, so the price at […]
Daily Market Commentary
From mid-July through September, the U.S. dollar rose steadily. Over the period, the dollar’s value versus a basket of global currencies rose by 7%. Supporting the rally was a very hawkish Fed willing to keep raising rates. Equally important, other central banks were starting to back away from their inflation-fighting, hawkish policies. As we show […]
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The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: Here’s why economists don’t expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation. In hindsight, so many economists could not have been more wrong in 2020 about the path of inflation. Today, despite their spurious track record, scores of economists exude confidence in […]
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Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted in the #BullBearReport this past weekend: “On Wednesday, Jerome Powell’s speech sparked a broad rally in stocks and bonds as market expectations for further rate hikes collapsed. […]
Daily Market Commentary
Over the last week, some of the largest and most well-followed investors, also known as whales, turned bullish on bonds. The largest whale is famed hedge fund investor, billionaire, and philanthropist Stanley Druckenmiller. A week ago, Druckenmiller, speaking at the Robin Hood Foundation conference, said he was taking “massive leveraged positions” in two-year Treasury notes. […]
Daily Market Commentary
The October labor report, released Friday, indicated slowing job growth in the US last month. The economy added 150k jobs in October versus a consensus estimate of 180k. A sharp decline from the 297k jobs added in September, and although the media is touting a “goldilocks labor report,” the numbers are more concerning under the […]
Daily Market Commentary
Almost a month ago, on October 7th, Hamas attacked Israel, and concerns of a much larger war in the Middle East spiked. War worries weighed on stock prices and irked the bond markets. With a few weeks to better assess the war situation and the many possibilities, the markets seem less worried. To wit, the […]
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The “pain trade” continues to be higher into year-end. We made Such a point in January, suggesting the 2022 “correction” was complete. Let’s review what I wrote, and then we will expand on why we believe the “pain trade” is higher over the next few weeks. “From the bullish side of the ledger, the outlook for 2023 has statistical […]