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Invest
It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong. For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for […]
Daily Market Commentary
Per the Tweet of the Day, our SimpleVisor relative analysis tool suddenly shows the real estate sector is the most overbought sector. For the better part of the year, real estate and many other sectors grossly lagged behind the technology and communications sectors. As we approach year end, the tide is turning. The graph below […]
Invest
Is a stock market correction coming before the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year? It is a fascinating turn in sentiment, given that investors were convinced of the bear market’s return just a month ago. Now, investors are “making their list and checking it twice.” Given the 10% advance over the past month, it […]
Daily Market Commentary
The squeeze is on in the orange juice futures market. The price of orange juice tends to be stable, typically hovering between $100-$150 per 15,000 pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate, as shown below. On occasion, the price spikes to $200 or higher during the winter months as irregular cold snaps harm the crops. Over […]
Daily Market Commentary
According to a recent article by the American Farm Bureau (AFB), Thanksgiving dinner will be cheaper this year than last year. That said, prices for the turkey and traditional Thanksgiving dinner side dishes are still up over 20% from pre-pandemic levels. The turkey accounts for 45% of the price of the dinner at an average […]
Economics
There is a zero to a negative multiplier of debt on economic growth. The recent spending spree of the Government to facilitate a transition to a socialistic economy requires a massive increase in debt.
Daily Market Commentary
Goldman Sachs released its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500 and the economy. “We forecast the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-month price gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends. Our baseline assumption during the next year is that the US economy continues to expand at […]
Daily Market Commentary
Our most recent article, CFNAI, The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number, shares an important economic metric that many investors tend to ignore. Further, unlike the more popular economic data points, CFNAI is forward-looking. Speaking of economic statistics that are not well covered is the trucking industry. Trucking services account for nearly 6% of GDP; […]
Daily Market Commentary
On the eve of the Hamas raid on Israel, crude oil was trading at $83 a barrel. It declined by $10 in the month leading to the attack. The narrative at the time was that global economic growth was weakening. Remember that the pre-pandemic (2015-2019) average was in the low $50s, so the price at […]