146 results found
Newsletter
Unsurprisingly, this past week's market action belonged to the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the FOMC delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. While the hike was widely expected, the 12-0 vote and the lack of rate cuts scheduled in 2027 shocked the markets. Furthermore, Kevin Warsh made clear that more hikes could follow.
Newsletter
If you look at the market headline, the bulls won this week. However, the internals told a different story with the S&P 500 closing Friday at 7,711.76, up 0.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9% to 26,402.42.
Daily Market Commentary
Nvidia reported record fiscal second-quarter results Wednesday with revenue more than doubling year over year to $96 billion. After initially falling on the news, the stock rose over 8% overnight. During the earnings call with analysts, CFO Colette Kress guided Nvidia’s fiscal 2028 revenue to roughly 70% growth. The forecast implies nearly $700 billion in […]
Daily Market Commentary
Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago. The tide may be turning; over the last week, Bitcoin rose by over 20%, marking its sharpest bounce during this year-long drawdown. The question is whether that marks […]
Daily Market Commentary
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is Treasury’s cash balance held at the Federal Reserve. Its balance is the net of cash inflows like tax receipts and outflows to pay the government’s bills. On Monday, we learned that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may fund the expanded Treasury bond buyback program by tapping the TGA. Currently, as […]
Newsletter
The week belonged to the bond market. Long-dated Treasury yields spiked to levels not seen in decades, with the 30-year touching a 19-year high above 5.30% mid-week and the 10-year closing Friday at 4.738%, near a 20-month high. Those seem to be really scary numbers, but as discussed on Friday, this is just a return to normalcy after 15 years of abnormally low rates.
Economics
A return to sound money has become the rallying cry for a growing crowd of investors, politicians, and commentators who are, understandably, fed up. Fed up with deficits that never shrink, with a national debt north of $39 trillion, with a dollar that buys a little less every year. The pitch is elegant. Back the […]
Daily Market Commentary
According to A Statistical Revamp Is About To Lower Inflation by The Wall Street Journal, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is reformulating its Core PCE calculation. The markets seem to focus on CPI as its inflation gauge, while the Fed often touts PCE as its key inflation indicator. Economists expect the BEA’s changes will […]
Daily Market Commentary
The US Treasury bought Japanese yen last Friday and again Monday morning in its first coordinated intervention in the currency since 2011, following Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. It is only the third such move since 1998. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the action: “Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements,” and pledged, “we […]