146 results found
Economics
The fiat currency collapse narrative is one of the most emotionally satisfying arguments in all of financial punditry. It feels intellectually rigorous, draws on genuine history, and speaks to deep and legitimate anxieties about government overreach, monetary recklessness, and the long-term consequences of unlimited debt creation.
Daily Market Commentary
The technology sector has been on edge in recent months, in part due to the evolving landscape of AI innovation funding. More specifically, equity investors of the largest AI companies are growing increasingly concerned because debt is being used more frequently as cash flows/profits are no longer sufficient to fully cover capital expenditures. Oracle sparked […]
Daily Market Commentary
Rather than relying on Wall Street forecasts, scary headlines, and fear-mongering social media posts, the oil futures curve provides the collective judgment of future oil prices from the most informed and financially committed market participants — traders, producers, refiners, and hedgers. Oil, like most commodities, trades in a series of contracts based on future delivery […]
Economics
The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative's core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money. The "money printing" has led to currency debasement and rendered the U.S. dollar obsolete. We discussed this "debasement" narrative previously.
Daily Market Commentary
The housing market is experiencing a widening imbalance between homesellers and homebuyers, with listings rising faster than demand. This is contrary to the post-pandemic period of extremely tight inventory and strong demand. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates who were initially hesitant to sell are now increasingly selling. As shown below, the housing market is shifting […]
Daily Market Commentary
Rather than focusing on valuation or fundamentals, momentum strategies use price behavior and relative performance to identify securities that are gaining or losing strength. One would think that, given the massive rotation trade and the resulting gaps in relative performance between various sectors and factors, momentum strategies would be doing well. While some such strategies […]
Daily Market Commentary
The dollar-debasement narrative is in full swing, as evidenced by the price of precious metals. However, one look at bitcoin, which should also rally on the debasement narrative, tells you something is amiss. We do not buy into the dollar-debasement narrative; instead, we believe much of the activity in gold and bitcoin is more closely […]
Daily Market Commentary
The delayed BLS employment report came in well above expectations, showing the economy added 130k jobs in January. Furthermore, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% versus expectations of a 0.1% increase to 4.5%. The more encompassing U6 unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 8.0%. The BLS labor report contradicts the monthly and weekly ADP reports, […]
Daily Market Commentary
The top graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows that the price of TLT, the 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has been drifting sideways for the last couple of years. Often, when a security trades in a tight range over an extended period, as we see with bonds currently, a breakout from the range can be […]