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Can Midcap Stocks Ignore Bond Yields?
The graphs below show the daily and weekly graphs of MDY, the midcap ETF, alongside ten-year note yields. The midcap index is breaking out to record highs. Such is not surprising given the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq also reached new records recently. What is surprising is that the midcap index […]
Feb 20, 2024
America Is Avoiding A Global Recession, So Far
On Thursday morning, Japan and the United Kingdom reported a negative GDP for the second consecutive quarter. A few weeks ago, Germany also reported consecutive quarterly declines in GDP. Accordingly, all three countries are now in a technical recession. To appreciate their role in the global economy, consider Germany is the world’s third-largest economy, and […]
Feb 16, 2024
Lyft Blunder Causes Chaos
Lyft’s earnings announcement Tuesday night was one for the ages. Their quarterly earnings statement reported that its margins rose by 5% or 500 basis points. In other words, for each dollar Lyft receives from its clients, they will earn an additional five cents. That may not seem like a lot, but it is. However, there […]
Feb 15, 2024
Small Businesses Are Struggling Despite The Economy
Per the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 43.5% of GDP comes from small businesses. The Small Business Administration claims small businesses employ 46.4% of private sector employees, accounting for 62.7% of new jobs since 1995. With an appreciation for the economic importance of small businesses, let’s review Tuesday’s National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly sentiment […]
Feb 14, 2024
Trueflation Or CPI Inflation?
On January 23, we led the Daily Commentary with a couple of paragraphs titled Is Trueflation A Better Gauge Of Inflation? If you want to learn more about the benefits of the Trueflation inflation calculation versus the popular CPI index, check out the article. About three weeks ago, when we wrote it, the Trueflation inflation […]
Feb 13, 2024
Tesla Is On Sale- Is It Time To Buy?
The Magnificent Seven continue to lead the market higher as they did last year. However, one of the seven stocks is falling woefully behind. Tesla is down 25% this year. Driving Tesla’s share price lower is growing concern that EVs may not be the much-ballyhooed future of automobiles. As evidence, GM and Ford are cutting […]
Feb 9, 2024
NYCB Is Downgraded And Contagion Fears Increase
Late Tuesday night, Moody’s downgraded NYCB’s credit rating to BB, putting it in junk bond status. The action occurred after NYCB stock had fallen 60% year to date. The lesson from 2008 and, more recently, in March 2023 is that stock investors can seal the fate of a bank. Panic selling by stock investors crushes […]
Feb 8, 2024
China Stocks In Freefall, Government To The Rescue
In early 2021, China’s CSI 300 Index, representing the top 300 stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, peaked at 5800. Today, three years later, the index sits at 3300, down over 40%. China’s key stock market index rout is not surprising, given China’s economy has been sluggish, its property sectors […]
Feb 7, 2024
CRE Contagion – Which Banks Are At Risk?
The price of New York Community Bank (NYCB) was cut in half last week as it drastically increased its loan loss reserves. As we noted in a recent Commentary, they took this action partly because of the commercial real estate (CRE) loans they bought from the failed Signature Bank. The work-from-home movement and higher interest […]
Feb 6, 2024
The Labor Market Is On Fire
The BLS stunned investors Friday morning, reporting that the labor market was hotter than expected. The labor market added 353k jobs in January, almost double expectations for 180k. Furthermore, December’s figure was revised upward by 117k. Of some concern for the Fed, average hourly earnings grew by 0.6%, twice what was expected. However, there are […]
Feb 5, 2024
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