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Is Bad Breadth The Norm, Not The Exception?
Since the Pandemic, markets have been behaving abnormally. One such instance is a somewhat regular occurrence of bad market breadth. In other words, the market-cap weighted S&P 500 drives higher, yet fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. For instance, in Monday’s Commentary, we discussed the current instance of bad breadth. To wit: […]
Aug 13, 2025
A 50 BPS Rate Cut Is Not Out Of The Question
As we share below, the Fed Funds futures market is 86.5% confident the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. However, they assign a zero percent chance that the Fed cuts by 50 bps. Powell’s trepidation to cut rates leaves traders unwilling to consider that anything more than 25bps is possible. We argue […]
Aug 12, 2025
Auto Manufacturing Shift Puts Pressure on Profits
While tariff threats dominate headlines, automakers face a structural shift that could reshape the global auto industry. In response to steep auto import duties, manufacturers are being nudged toward “local for local” production models- an expensive and time-consuming pivot. Per the Wall Street Journal article “Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War”: Beyond […]
Aug 11, 2025
Data Myopia Foils The Fed
For months, we have been warning that the labor markets are not as strong as the BLS data attests. Six months ago, we wrote: While labor market data is generally good, there are signs the labor market is at a standstill. Continuing jobless claims are steadily rising and at their highest level in over three […]
Aug 8, 2025
Insiders Sell The July Rally
While the market steadily rose throughout June and July, corporate insiders were growing less enthusiastic about the stock market. Less than a third of S&P 500 companies saw insiders purchase stock in their own company in July. That is the lowest figure since 2018. Moreover, the ratio of buys to sells for insiders fell to […]
Aug 7, 2025
Utilities And Industrials Carry The Market
The race to build and power AI data centers is creating an interesting anomaly in the stock market. Despite the S&P 500 being up over 7% on the year, and the higher-beta stocks seemingly leading the way, utilities and industrials are the best-performing sectors. The surging demand for power drives utilities, while industrials benefit from […]
Aug 6, 2025
Palantir Thrives On Trump Presidency
Shares of Palantir rose about 20% the day President Trump was elected president. The stock hasn’t looked back, more than tripling since election day. Palantir has been a big winner under the Trump administration. This past weekend, the Washington Post highlighted some of the big government contract wins for Palantir as shown below: Palantir’s sales […]
Aug 5, 2025
Does Trump Have A Valid Point About Rate Cuts?
President Trump has been incessantly pressuring Jerome Powell to cut rates ever since he took office. To wit, check out Trump’s latest post on Truth Social below. The Fed cut rates in late 2024 but stopped when Trump took office. Some claim the pause is political. Conversely, the Fed primarily supports its case with fears […]
Aug 4, 2025
GDP Is Meh: The Bullish And Bearish Headlines Are Misleading
The BEA reported that real GDP grew by 3.0% in the second quarter. Such is almost a percent better than the longer run trend growth rate, and is a cause for optimism for some. However, first quarter GDP was -0.5%, well below trend growth, and worthy of pessimism. The problem with being optimistic about the second […]
Aug 1, 2025
Dissent In The Fed Ranks
December 2024 marked the second-to-last time there was a dissent by an FOMC voting member. The dissent, at the time, was a sole vote by Jefferey Schmid against cutting rates. The last dissent was yesterday. While the Fed voted to maintain the Fed Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Wallace cast dissenting votes […]
Jul 31, 2025
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