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ISM Manufacturing Supports Reflationary Forecasts
Over the last couple of weeks, we have shared evidence that supports the reflationary narrative and some that defies it. Today, we share the latest ISM Manufacturing data, which lends credence to the reflationary narrative. The ISM Manufacturing survey showed a big improvement in sentiment, as shown below. The gauge shot up 4.7 to 52.6, […]
Feb 4, 2026
Private Credit Funds Falling Out Of Favor
Private credit funds were all the rage in 2024 and 2025 as institutional and high-net-worth retail investors sought more risk and higher returns. Over the last few months, that trend has started reversing. The FT reports that private credit investors pulled more than $7 billion from some of the biggest private credit funds in the […]
Feb 3, 2026
Warsh To Head The Fed
The wait is over, and President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve. To better appreciate Warsh’s views on monetary policy and what they may entail for markets, we summarize a recent Wall Street Journal editorial he wrote, The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership. Our market-related thoughts are below the bullet points. From […]
Feb 2, 2026
Meta And Microsoft: Great Earnings But Different Results
On the heels of strong fourth-quarter earnings reports, Microsoft is opening down 8%, while Meta is trading up 10%. Microsoft topped expectations for earnings and revenues. However, there is some concern about its total cloud revenue. They reported cloud revenue of 26% versus expectations of 28-29%. That said, their leading cloud computing product, Azure, grew […]
Jan 30, 2026
The Energy Sector Is Outpacing Energy Prices
Over the last year, energy stocks have traded well despite crude oil prices languishing. For instance, over the last six months, XLE, the energy ETF, has risen 14%, while crude oil prices have fallen by 12%. The two largest components of XLE, Exxon and Chevron, which account for 40% of the ETF, are up 30% […]
Jan 29, 2026
European Buyers Strike Or Performance Chasing?
Bloomberg recently published “Wall Street Grapples With A New Risk: A European Buyers Strike.” The article notes that stock indexes in Europe, Japan, Canada, and South Korea are all beating US equities in both nominal and dollar terms. As a result, some European pension funds and other foreign buyers are trimming their exposure to US […]
Jan 28, 2026
Do Sentiment Trends Boost Reflation Odds
On Monday, we discussed how the Truflation inflation gauge points to a sudden price decline, which clouds the reflation outlook. Today, we share recent consumer sentiment readings that counter the disinflation story and support the reflation narrative. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index improved in January to a five-month […]
Jan 27, 2026
The Reflation Narrative Stumbles Out Of The Gate
With a 4.4% increase in economic growth in the third quarter and expectations that it could be higher in the fourth quarter, the so-called reflation narrative appears primed to dash out of the gates in 2026 at its current strong pace. The problem with assuming the reflation narrative will hold in 2026 is that it […]
Jan 26, 2026
Silver Math: Gold Warns Of Silver Correction
Over the last few months, we have questioned the dollar debasement narrative. However, in this commentary, we suspend our views and assume that debasement is real and, further, that it fully explains why gold and silver are rising rapidly. The goal of this exercise is to use gold returns and math to find a fair […]
Jan 23, 2026
Akademiker Pension Serves The US A Warning
A Danish pension fund, Akademiker Pension, which manages roughly $25 billion in retirement assets for teachers, announced that it plans to sell all of its U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of January. Their action is a symbolic rebuke against rising tensions over Greenland’s sovereignty. The fund claims: The decision is rooted in the poor […]
Jan 22, 2026
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