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Credit Spreads Are Widening: Omen Or No Bother?
Increasing corporate credit spreads, or a growing divergence between corporate bond yields and similar-maturity Treasury yields, can be an omen of stock market weakness. Recent troublesome defaults in the private credit markets are showing signs of spreading concern to the more liquid corporate debt markets. Thus, it’s appropriate to review corporate credit spreads. in the […]
Mar 5, 2026
Middle East Military Conflicts And Stocks
The question for investors is how the Iranian conflict will affect the stock market. The markets’ initial reaction on Sunday was concern as the S&P 500 fell by over 1%, crude oil rose nearly 10%, and precious metals rallied. Within 12 hours, many of the substantial gains or losses, except oil, were reversed. However, stocks, […]
Mar 4, 2026
The Financial Sector Is Under Pressure
The heatmap below, courtesy of FinViz, shows the one-month performance of the S&P 500 financial sector stocks. As shown, Berkshire Hathaway and the insurance companies are higher over the period, while the large majority of the remaining financial sector stocks struggle. For context, the S&P 500 was down 2.80% over the same period. There appear […]
Mar 3, 2026
MFS Collapses Adding To Private Credit Woes
In our February 3rd Commentary, we discussed the recent woes negatively impacting private credit funds. The concerns began last year with the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands and continue to mount, as evidenced by the share prices of some private credit managers shown below. Adding to market worries is fresh news of a $1.3 […]
Mar 2, 2026
Nvidia Delivers Perfection But Market Has Concerns
Yet again, Nvidia delivers another incredible earnings report, reinforcing that the AI investment boom continues. As we show below, they posted annual revenue growth of of 73%, handily beating Wall Street forecasts. Most importantly, strong earnings and robust forward guidance confirm that their customers continue to aggressively expand AI infrastructure. Nvidia delivers the critical computing […]
Feb 27, 2026
Hindenburg Alarm: Another Rotation Or Worse?
In early November, we sounded the alarm about a recent Hindenburg Omen. Per the Commentary’s summary: Bottom line: market breadth is horrendous and will likely lead to a rotation favoring out-of-favor sectors and stocks. Thus, it’s not surprising that the Hindenburg Omen was triggered. If we continue to see more of these Omens, the threat […]
Feb 26, 2026
Homesellers Dwarf Homebuyers: Home Prices At Risk
The housing market is experiencing a widening imbalance between homesellers and homebuyers, with listings rising faster than demand. This is contrary to the post-pandemic period of extremely tight inventory and strong demand. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates who were initially hesitant to sell are now increasingly selling. As shown below, the housing market is shifting […]
Feb 25, 2026
Our Take On Tariffs
To address the many emails we received, we present our take on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling. First, President Trump has multiple ways he can implement trade restrictions beyond what the Supreme Court ruled against. In fact, he implemented a 150-day 15% global tariff after the court’s ruling. As we share below, the effective tariff […]
Feb 24, 2026
Mag 7 Debt & Declining Free Cash Flow: Worrisome Or Not?
We have read a few articles expressing concern that the free cash flow for many of the Magnificent (Mag) 7 companies that are heavily involved in AI development and/or data center construction has leveled off. Furthermore, the hyperscalers, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, issued over $120 billion in debt last year. Additionally, Google just […]
Feb 23, 2026
4 Percent Inflation: The Case For And Against
In a recent white paper, The Risk Of Higher US Inflation In 2026, Adam Posen and Peter Orszag argue that inflation could exceed 4 percent by year’s end. To wit, they lead the article as follows: In our view, however, this optimism is premature. We think it is more likely that inflation will surprise to […]
Feb 20, 2026
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