Real Investment Daily

#MacroView: Fed Launches A Bazooka To Kill A Virus

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 13, 2020

Will the Federal Reserve’s influx of liquidity revive the bulls “animal spirits?” Maybe, but it likely won’t “cure” what ails the market. However, the Federal Reserve, and Central Banks globally, are not going to quietly into the night. Expect more stimulus, more liquidity, and more rate cuts. If that doesn’t work, expect more until it does.

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-13-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 13, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

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Technically Speaking: On The Cusp Of A Bear Market

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 10, 2020

The action this year is reminiscent of previous market topping processes. Tops are hard to identify during the process as “change happens slowly.” But when the process completes, it will seem as if the change occurred “all at once.”

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Michael Markowski: Market Will Decline 34% To 77% From Highs

Written by Guest Author | Mar 9, 2020

The simultaneous double-digit declines for the stock markets of four of the world’s developed countries was an ominous event. Based on empirical data the probability is 100% the US, German, Japanese and Canadian stock markets will decline by 34% from their 2020 highs

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#FPC: Tips For A Volatile Market

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 6, 2020

It seems like the sky is falling, it always does when we get into one of these environments, but fret not we’ve been here before. The question is what will you do different this time around?

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 03-06-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 6, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

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A Black Swan In The Ointment

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Mar 4, 2020

Our modern economic policy framework is not designed for inflation, nor are many people even thinking about it as a possibility. That is a black swan.

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Technically Speaking: Sellable Rally, Or The Return Of The Bull?

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 3, 2020

The market rally on Monday was the expected reflexive bounce we discussed in this past weekend’s newsletter. The question now is how far it will go, should you buy it, and what you should expect next. The risks are high; a retest of the recent lows will come sooner rather than later.

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Buffett Lost $90 Billion By Not Following His Own Advice

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar 2, 2020

For years, Warren Buffett has told investors to buy an index fund and hold it, as stocks should outperform bonds in the future. While Buffett holds $128 billion in Bonds, is this a classic case of “do as I say, not as I do.” It cost his investors $90 billion over the last decade.

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MacroView: The Ghosts Of 2018?

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2020

In January we asked if this was going to be a repeat of 2018 as a strong start wound up wiping out all the gains. Well, we now know the answer. The question is what happens next, what should you do, and is the worst behind us.

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 02-24-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

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Robertson: One Is The Loneliest Number

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 28, 2020

While the work of toiling on individual company analyses can be a lonely endeavor, especially while passive strategies remain in the spotlight, it is also a valid way to extract decent returns from an otherwise overvalued universe of options.

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Quick Take: Recession Risks Tick Up

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 27, 2020

Current analysis suggests a “no recession” scenario but is based on lagging economic data which is highly subject to negative revisions. The stock market, however, is a strong leading indicator and returns are typically favorable until about 6-months prior to the start of a recession.

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Seth Levine: Commoditizing My Framework For A New Paradigm

Written by Seth Levine | Feb 26, 2020

When it comes to investing it’s never different this time; nor, however, is it ever the same. This difficult-to-navigate paradox creates a scarcity of longevity. Today’s persistently low yield environment has upped the ante and put many marquis names out of business.

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Technically Speaking: Markets Start To Price In “Viral Impacts”

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 24, 2020

On Monday, the market suffered the sharpest one day decline we have seen since 2018. Is this another “buy the dip” opportunity or is it a bigger correction in the making? The question is now that the markets have woken up to the coronavirus how much has been priced in?

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Earnings Lies & Why Munger Says “EBITDA is Bull S***”

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 24, 2020

In a world of adjusted earnings, where every company is way above average, every quarter, investors quickly lose sight of what matters most in investing. “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren BuffettImaginary worlds are nice, it’s just impossible to live there.

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#MacroView: Japan, The Fed, & The Limits Of QE

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 21, 2020

The Fed recognizes ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in the terms of asset bubbles across multiple asset classes. They are also aware the majority of policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. This leaves them dependent on expanding their balance sheet which may not be as effective as they hope. 

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 02-17-20

Written by Lance Roberts | Feb 21, 2020

Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.

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Gone Fishing Newsletter: The Inflation Edition

Written by Samantha LaDuc | Feb 21, 2020

What’s up with inflation? The Fed spent three years tightening into a low inflation, low growth U.S. economy, and the global economy was too fragile to handle the liquidity and tightening drain. What are commodities telling us now?

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Digging For Value in a Pile of Manure

Written by Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott | Feb 19, 2020

With so many assets having historically expensive valuations, it is a difficult time to be an optimist. One just has to hold their nose and get a little dirty to find value using yield and duration
in the fixed income markets.

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