Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 14, 2023 | InvestingAre you an "investor" or a "speculator?" Over the last month, we have discu...
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CFNAI: The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 10, 2023 | EconomicsThe Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooke...
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2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Nov 8, 2023 | InvestingThe following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: Here's why economists don't expec...
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Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 7, 2023 | InvestingIs the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices ...
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Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t
Written by Lance Roberts | Nov 3, 2023 | EconomicsThe recent #MacroView blog noted economists are increasingly confident the economy will avoid a rec...
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Why Target Date Funds Fail Investors: A $3 Trillion Delusion
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Nov 1, 2023 | InvestingMorningstar estimates that as of 2022, there is nearly $3 trillion invested in target date mutual f...
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Investing Rules To Navigate Volatile Markets
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 31, 2023 | InvestingWhile often difficult, investing rules can help us maintain our focus and investment discipline in ...
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Economists No Longer Expect A Recession. Are They Right?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 27, 2023 | EconomicsEconomists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street e...
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The Pain Trade Is Higher Into Year-End
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 24, 2023 | InvestingThe "pain trade" continues to be higher into year-end. We made Such a point in January, s...
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Restrictive Yields Will Be The Fed’s Waterloo
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 20, 2023 | EconomicsRestrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed's "...
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Bond Market Noise Hides Tremendous Opportunity
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Oct 18, 2023 | InvestingTreasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plet...
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Crisis Events Are A Hallmark Of The Federal Reserve
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 13, 2023 | EconomicsAs the "soft landing" narrative grows, the risk of a "crisis" event in the economy increases. Will ...
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Bond Valuations Are Cheap.
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 10, 2023 | InvestingBond valuations are cheap. Psychology in markets is always fascinating. In February 2009, I wro...
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Fund Flows And Bond Yields. Two Different Stories
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 6, 2023 | InvestingWhile bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories....
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From LTCM To 1966. The Perils Of Rising Interest Rates
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Oct 4, 2023 | InvestingBased on some comments, it appears we scared a few people with A Crisis Is Coming. Our article warn...
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Government Shutdown Averted. But Is That A Good Thing?
Written by Lance Roberts | Oct 3, 2023 | InvestingOnce again, due to the ongoing lack of fiscal responsibility in Washington, the markets and the eco...
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“Soft Landing” Hope By The Fed Is Likely Optimistic
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 29, 2023 | EconomicsThe Fed's "soft landing" hopes are likely overly optimistic. Such was the context of the recent #Bu...
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A Crisis Is Coming: Who Is Swimming Naked?
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep 27, 2023 | InvestingWe recently wrote The Lag Effect Unveiled to appreciate why it takes time for higher interest rates...
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“That 70s Show”
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 22, 2023 | EconomicsThe hit TV series "That 70s Show" aired from 1998 to 2006 and focused on six teenage friends living...
> Read MoreOctober Weakness Before The Year-End Run?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 19, 2023 | InvestingWhile September has been a bit sloppy so far, will further weakness in October weigh on investor se...
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Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 15, 2023 | EconomicsThe term "Bond Vigilantes" is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, th...
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The Lag Effect Unveiled
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep 13, 2023 | InvestingDespite surging interest rates, there are few signs they are impeding economic activity or causing ...
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Predictions Are Pointless. Why You Shouldn’t Listen To Gurus.
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 12, 2023 | Investing“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niel...
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Economic Data Points Diverge
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 8, 2023 | EconomicsSince the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022. T...
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Risk Free Government Debt – Fact or Fiction
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Sep 6, 2023 | InvestingMost investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk free. Why shouldn't they, every economic a...
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Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 5, 2023 | InvestingMega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many othe...
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Powell’s Speech Obfuscates The Truth Behind Inflation
Written by Lance Roberts | Sep 1, 2023 | EconomicsPowell's recent Jackson Hole Summit speech was mainly as expected. Well, except for the part where ...
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Deficit Surge Will Lead To Lower Rates, Not Higher
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug 25, 2023 | EconomicsFitch's recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating alarmed investors as the deficit and debt steadily...
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Bond Traders And Their Bearish Stories
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Aug 23, 2023 | Investing“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yiel...
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Stock Market Rally Coming? And Investing In 2024.
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug 22, 2023 | InvestingIs a stock market rally coming? I think that is most likely the case. However, to understand why, w...
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