Software stocks have taken a beating this year on fears that AI will erode pricing power across the industry. While the fear may be genuine for some companies, Palantir posted earnings that told a vastly different story. To wit, its CEO Alex Karp described Q2 earnings as “otherworldly.” Palantir shares surged by nearly 30%, its […]
According to A Statistical Revamp Is About To Lower Inflation by The Wall Street Journal, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is reformulating its Core PCE calculation. The markets seem to focus on CPI as its inflation gauge, while the Fed often touts PCE as its key inflation indicator. Economists expect the BEA’s changes will […]
The US Treasury bought Japanese yen last Friday and again Monday morning in its first coordinated intervention in the currency since 2011, following Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. It is only the third such move since 1998. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the action: “Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements,” and pledged, “we […]
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness Fund turned $225 million into as much as $45 billion. Not bad for a 24-year-old with little experience. In June alone, his fund was up 439% year-to-date. Despite the rapid wild success, last Thursday the fund was forced to sell all of its public investments to satisfy margin calls. Furthermore, they […]
At Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Chair Warsh made it clear that the Fed’s number one goal is returning inflation to its 2% target. The reaction in the long end of the bond market was one of disbelief. The 2-year yield fell roughly 4 basis points to 4.24%, while long bonds like the 10-year climbed by […]
Despite the market assigning a moderate 35% chance of a rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged. However, three dissenting voters (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) wanted a rate hike. The Fed Funds futures market is now pricing in near 80% odds of a September hike. The question is whether 3 to […]
The FOMC meeting concludes today with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Heading into today’s announcement, the market is placing 62% odds the Fed holds rates at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, as we share below, market expectations for a September rate hike are […]
Last week, chip maker Intel delivered its seventh consecutive quarterly earnings beat with revenue growing 25% year over year, its fastest growth since 2011. Its non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 doubled the $0.21 consensus. Data Center and AI revenue surged 59%, and 18A foundry output exceeded internal targets by roughly 25%. Intel shares initially jumped as […]
Thursday’s selloff, led by Alphabet down 7% and Tesla down nearly 15%, was a great example of a story that has been unfolding throughout most of the year. While the largest stocks led the market lower last Thursday, many other stocks, especially small caps, were flat to higher on the day. That divergence has been […]