With the amount of Treasury debt now in sharp focus, it’s worth cutting through the technical jargon used by the media to quantify demand at Treasury auctions. This summary of key Treasury auction terms will help you judge the auctions for yourself and not rely on others. The Treasury releases the statement below with each […]
Apple (AAPL) shares are languishing this year. As we share below, the stock is down over 16% year-to-date and significantly lags all of the Magnificent Seven stocks except Tesla. While weak revenue growth and relatively few new products are culprits, it’s also worth noting that Apple is considerably behind in AI development. Some Apple employees, […]
Hidden within a Bloomberg article published over the July 4th weekend was the following quote alluding to the possibility that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could simultaneously replace Jerome Powell as the Fed Chair, while continuing to serve as the Treasury Secretary. The president said Tuesday he has “two or three top choices” to potentially succeed […]
In no uncertain words, Intel’s stock has been a dog. As we share below, Intel stock has increased by a mere 2% over the last 20 years, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) has risen by over 1,200%. Over the previous 20+ years, Intel’s management has made many missteps, including: With dirt-cheap valuations compared to […]
The Fed and most investors primarily assess the labor market based on the monthly BLS employment report. To better guide those estimates, various reports, such as the monthly ADP report, can be helpful. We say “can be” because, since the pandemic, ADP has been less correlated with the BLS than it was before the pandemic. […]
The age of robotics is no longer a futuristic concept. Per a Wall Street Journal article entitled, Amazon Is On The Cusp Of Using More Robots Than Humans In Its Warehouses, Amazon now has over one million robots in its warehouses doing the work that humans once handled. More impressively, the million robots are nearing […]
Recently, the media have highlighted anomalies in the University of Michigan (UM) consumer sentiment survey compared to other financial/economic sentiment surveys. It turns out UM changed their data gathering methods between April and July 2024. While it’s challenging to determine the impact of these changes and whether they are responsible for the recent divergences from […]
Donald Trump’s frustration with Chairman Powell increases by the day. Consequently, per The Wall Street Journal, expectations are that Trump will announce Powell’s successor sooner than typical. Powell’s term expires May 2026. If Trump goes through with an early nomination, this “shadow Fed Chair” would espose views on the economy and monetary policy until Powell’s retirement. Consequently, […]
Yesterday’s Commentary noted that the dollar is very oversold and likely due for a reversal. To wit: The dollar is deeply deviated from its longer-term mean, oversold on multiple levels, and has been basing since April. As noted last Friday, the incredibly negative bias and position against the dollar are excellent contrarian signals for a […]