Imagine the dilemma of holding a large number of shares of NVDA with a massive unrealized profit. While, on the one hand, you have produced incredible returns, you also have an enormous tax bill once you sell. It appears that very wealthy individuals and some institutions are using a 100-year-old tax code to avoid paying […]
Investors aware of which types of stocks are rotating in and out favor have a distinct advantage. On Tuesdays, we summarize key points from our SimpleVisor absolute and relative analysis. The DIY tool uses technical analysis to assess how sectors, factors, and individual stocks are performing relative to the market and on an absolute basis. […]
Fed Governor Christopher Waller was crystal clear in a speech on Thursday that he would like the Fed to cut rates in July. Importantly, consider the first line of his speech at NYU: My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce our policy rate […]
It appears President Trump set a test for the market to see what investors would think of him firing Jerome Powell. The bond and stock markets provided a swift answer to Trump’s test. The test originated inconspicuously from a post on X by Florida Republican Anna Paulina Luna, who had been on the phone with […]
The BLS Producer Price Index (PPI), measuring wholesale prices, surprised to the downside, showing a zero percent increase in prices for June. PPI came in lower than what all 50 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted. To wit, both the core and headline figures were 0.20% below estimates. Notably, the headline PPI for the last three […]
Yesterday’s CPI data was viewed by many as the first monthly BLS report to capture the full impact of tariffs. The headline CPI rose 0.3% and the core CPI data showed a 0.2% increase. The CPI data was slightly lower than Wall Street’s expectations for a 0.3% increase for both figures. Those claiming that tariffs […]
For the first time since 2016, the Federal government ran a budget surplus in June. Before the Financial Crisis, a surplus was the norm. However, since then, deficits have been the rule, not the exception. The cause of the $27 billion surplus was $27 billion in tariffs taken in. For reference, the government took in […]
In a unique event, the US government, specifically the Department of Defense (DoD), bought a 15% stake in the nation’s largest rare earth miner, MP Materials (MP). The DoD is buying $400 million of MP’s convertible preferred stock. The transaction will make the government MP’s largest shareholder. The following quote on the benefits of the partnership […]
Jerome Powell has made it clear that tariffs could induce higher inflation. Accordingly, the Fed has resisted cutting interest rates. Despite his concerns, fears of tariff-based inflation, as judged by individual and business surveys, are fading. Moreover, even some Fed members are backing away from their prior outlook that inflation would be transitory due to […]