With interest rates in developed economies falling but still significantly higher than their respective troughs in 2021-2022, some pundits are claiming that we are entering a new interest rate regime. Gone, they say, are the days of near-zero or even negative interest rates. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may lead some pundits to rethink their logic. […]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell presented his quarterly testimony to the House yesterday and will testify to the Senate today. The market reaction was minimal as much of his speech was a repeat of last week’s FOMC meeting and press conference. As is typical at these quarterly presentations, he will present identical testimony to both houses […]
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would have severe implications for global trade, most importantly oil. As the graphic below, courtesy of the EIA, shows, about 14 million barrels of oil and condensate flow through the Strait daily. That equates to about 15% of daily global shipping. Accordingly, closing the Strait of Hormuz may seem like […]
As the building of AI and cloud data centers expands rapidly, the demand for energy to power these data centers grows. The problem, however, is that the existing power grid can’t keep up with the rapidly increasing demand. Furthermore, improving and expanding the power grid takes longer than building data centers. Consequently, data centers are […]
The Fed left rates and the pace of QT unchanged as expected in Wednesday’s meeting. Powell’s opening statement was updated to reflect that uncertainty about the economic outlook has “diminished but remains elevated.” Powell emphasized that the Fed would maintain a data-dependent approach and isn’t in a hurry to cut rates, but left the door […]
One of the most common parallels for AI stocks’ booming performance is the tech bubble of the 1990s. Both periods were and are being driven by transformative secular developments. On the surface, the remarkable growth, market performance, and high valuations of AI stocks resemble dot-com stocks from the years that created the tech bubble. We’ve […]
Tesla’s robotaxi service, tentatively set to launch June 22, 2025, lags behind Waymo’s established operations, which deliver 250,000 weekly rides across multiple U.S. cities. Elon Musk’s cautious approach, driven by safety concerns, has delayed the rollout of Tesla’s robotaxi service. However, Tesla’s long-term strategy could position it to overtake competitors. Waymo, backed by Alphabet’s $5 […]
Crude oil prices spiked by over $10 on the initial news that Israel was bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeting its key military leaders. The price surge should be expected, given that Iran accounts for slightly over 3% of global production and, more importantly, holds 12% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. For context, […]
Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below […]