The May CPI report released yesterday was considered the first inflation gauge to show how tariffs are impacting prices. We would like to see a few more months of inflation reports before claiming the coast is clear, but the May CPI is encouraging. For the fourth consecutive month, the CPI was below Wall Street estimates. […]
On May 20th, Google CEO Sundar Pichai updated the public on the company’s progress on its AI development as follows: We are now processing 480 trillion monthly tokens, a nearly 50X increase in just one. Over 7 million developers are now building with the Gemini API, a 5x growth since last I.O., and our enterprise […]
The deficit fearmongers are out in full force, warning that massive debt payments will further exacerbate the deficit and ultimately bankrupt the country. While we agree that steadily increasing deficits are a significant problem, we believe it’s not for the reasons most people give. To that end, a recent Tweet by George Gammon succinctly makes […]
Numerous bond narratives are driving long-term bond yields higher. “Crippling deficits” and a tariff-induced inflation sit at the top the list. We have repeatedly poked holes in these narratives. Instead of dwelling further on them, let’s consider what tomorrow’s narratives might be. When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we […]
The graph below provides a clearer understanding of the US fiscal deficit. First, focus on the red line below, graphing the ratio of federal debt to GDP. Note that it is at the same level today as it was in 2021. Similarly, before the pandemic, it had been relatively flat for seven years. This highlights […]
The cryptocurrency sphere and that of traditional finance continue to merge in ways that were previously unthinkable. To wit, Canary Capital filed documentation with the SEC to start the first ETF backed by non-fungible digital tokens. Non-fungible tokens are digital assets representing ownership of a specific piece of content. Most often, they are backed by […]
The following commentary is from Redfin “There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market. Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. […]
An old Wall Street adage advises investors to sell in May and go away. Given that we have just turned the calendar to June, it’s worth assessing whether selling stocks and holding cash for the next seven months makes sense. The graph and data below are based on two trading strategies, both starting in January […]
Some bearish bond investors in Japan and the US appear to believe that a paradigm shift is underway in the sovereign bond markets. To wit, consider the following statement from Jim Bianco on Thoughtful Money: “If these deficits are really going to kick in and cause problems, these rates are going to go much higher than […]