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The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]
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The semiconductor rally has reached parabolic levels — SOXX is now pricing 2028 revenue at 2026 prices, the same setup we saw at the dot-com peak and the 2018 and 2021 semis tops. That doesn’t mean it ends next week. Crowded trades extend further than they should before they break.
But three things have shifted. Option-implied tail risk is widening. Breadth beneath the index has thinned to a handful of names. And the capex math behind the AI narrative — Oracle promised $60B/year from an OpenAI that doesn’t earn it yet, to build infrastructure that requires 4.5 GW of power — is increasingly faith-based.
Bottom line: The bubble isn’t bursting yet, but the risk/reward of chasing has turned. Trim, don’t sell.
Daily Market Commentary
The Fed hiked by 25 basis points and alluded to another hike, as the market expected and as we surmised in our prior Commentary. The more important takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC meeting is what comes next. In the prior Commentary, we pointed out three things to watch: the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the balance […]
Blog
We publish this article hours before the Fed updates monetary policy at its September 16, 2026, FOMC meeting. Prior to its decision, the Fed has kept the Fed Funds rate steady even as inflation runs stubbornly above target. At the same time, longer-term bond yields have risen appreciably and, in the process, are tightening financial […]
Daily Market Commentary
Our title, “Fed Hikes,” is a bit presumptuous, but with Fed Funds futures assigning a 90% chance of a hike this afternoon, it’s likely a done deal. Instead of debating whether the Fed hikes, the more useful question for investors is: what comes next? Three things from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will likely put us in […]
Daily Market Commentary
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier,” on his personal website last weekend that is weighing on AI stocks. Amodei argues AI labs need to slow development to manage the risks that come with capabilities improving faster than our ability to understand and control them. Sam Altman and Elon Musk […]
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The questions investors are searching today — answered by the RIA Advisors research team.
Valuations across semiconductors and hyperscaler capex are pricing in 2028 revenue today. SOXX has reached parabolic levels last seen at prior cycle peaks — Nasdaq 2000, semis 2018, semis 2021. The question isn’t whether AI is real; it’s whether $60 billion-per-year promises to Oracle from companies that don’t yet earn that revenue can be sustained without a meaningful correction.
Our weekly Bull Bear Report tracks the semiconductor breadth, capex commitments, and the option-implied tail risk. We don’t predict tops — we measure when the trade gets crowded enough that the risk/reward turns.
The latest FOMC projections show three camps. Doves favor further cuts to insulate the labor market. Hawks see a re-acceleration of services inflation and want to hold. The middle warns that easing into elevated equity valuations would be a textbook policy error.
Bond market pricing currently reflects ~1.4 cuts over the next 12 months — below the SEP median. That gap is where opportunity lives. See our same-day FOMC reaction note for the full dot plot interpretation.
Asset allocation always depends on age, time horizon, and risk tolerance. But the current environment — equity valuations 18% above the 10-year forward P/E average, stable bond yields above 4%, and elevated geopolitical tail risk — argues for keeping bonds as the primary portfolio stabilizer rather than chasing alternatives.
Our free Retirement Income E-Guide walks through the framework. Richard Rosso, CFP, also publishes a recommended reading list each January for investors building literacy in this space.
The 200-day moving average is the rolling 200-trading-day mean closing price of an index. For the S&P 500, it currently sits at 6,612. The index is roughly 3.55% above this level.
Historically, sustained breaks below the 200-DMA have demarcated bullish from bearish market regimes. RIA’s internal research on the post-breakdown record — an 87% win rate at six months, average return +14%, average max drawdown −16.5% — informs how we size positions when the trend line is tested.
Gold at $3,142 reflects two things: real demand from central banks diversifying reserves, and a reflexivity loop where rising prices drive more buying. The 1970s analog — gold as a stagflation hedge — doesn’t transfer cleanly because the macro setup is fundamentally different. Today’s debt levels make any sustained Fed inflation tolerance much costlier.
Gold can be a tactical position. It is not, in our view, the structural portfolio stabilizer some commentary suggests. See our long-form piece on the commodity supercycle thesis for the full argument.
Private credit refers to direct lending from non-bank investors to mid-market companies, typically at floating rates and through funds managed by firms like Blackstone, Blue Owl, Apollo, and BlackRock. The asset class has grown from $500B to over $1.7T in a decade.
The stress isn’t yet visible in marks — private credit is held at cost, with quarterly fair-value adjustments rather than daily marks. But the public credit signal (BDC discounts, secondary market pricing) is widening. RIA’s private credit coverage tracks the indicators that matter.
Lance Roberts is the Chief Investment Strategist for RIA Advisors, a registered investment advisory firm based in Houston, Texas. He is the lead editor of the Real Investment Report, a weekly newsletter distributed to over 100,000 subscribers, and host of The Real Investment Show podcast. He has 35+ years of experience managing portfolios through the 1987, 1999, 2008, and 2020 cycles.
RIA Advisors manages approximately $1.5 billion in client assets, focused on high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Real Investment Advice is the firm’s editorial platform — the analysis driving the same portfolio decisions for client money.
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