Last week, we discussed why the more bullish technical formations were at odds with the many recession forecasts. Not surprisingly, that article generated substantial pushback from readers, pointing out various bearish fundamental measures. As I discussed in our latest “Bull Bear Report,” the technical backdrop has improved markedly since the October lows. “I previously discussed […]
The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve, suggested an impending recession. In 2020, those signals became a reality. As in 2019, we see many of the same warning signals from the NFIB survey […]
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review. A deep dive into the fundamentals which drive long-term returns from J. Breet Freeze.
On October 12, 1987, a week before Black Monday, the Wall Street Journal warned of the potential for significant market turmoil. Per the article: The use of portfolio insurance “could snowball into a stunning rout for stocks.” Today, we are increasingly alarmed that another trading tool similar to portfolio insurance could set markets up for […]
Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. It is hard to argue with the recession forecasts that currently proliferate the headlines. For […]
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy. “David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, is betting that inflation will continue to ease in 2023, helping the US economy to narrowly escape a recession. Ed Yardeni, the longtime stock strategist and founder of his […]
Investment management can be silly, just like the title of this article. When researching potential investments, we often must choose between math and facts versus irrational human behavior. For instance, the rise of passive investment strategies has many investors favoring “value” stocks not on valuations or earnings trends but on self-serving Wall Street classifications. As […]
From a contrarian investing view, everyone remains bearish despite a market that corrected all of last year. I polled my Twitter followers recently to take their pulse on the market. Of the 1280 votes cast in the poll, roughly 73% of respondents anticipate the market to be lower throughout 2023. That view also corresponds with […]
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy? Such was an interesting premise from Alastair Crooke via the Strategic Culture Foundation. To wit: “The Fed however, may be attempting to implement a contrarian, controlled demolition of the U.S. bubble-economy through interest rate increases. The rate rises will not slay the inflation ‘dragon’ […]