A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out. “Amateur trader Omar Ghias says he amassed roughly $1.5 million as stocks surged during the early part of the pandemic, gripped by a speculative fervor that cascaded across all markets. As […]
Don’t be fooled. Two important pieces of data came out this week that should be paid close attention to. On February 16th, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February was released. According to MarketWatch, the median estimate called for a decline of -7.8. The actual result was a decline -24.3. The official press release noted […]
By owning gold, investors are not necessarily hedging against a government default but ironically betting the Fed will increasingly misuse monetary policy to help the government avoid defaulting. That may not be the exact thesis gold investors signed up for, but there is ample evidence linking gold prices to Fed behaviors, as we will share. […]
Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. As noted by Yahoo Finance last Friday: “The newly-coined ‘no landing’ outcome considers a scenario in which inflation doesn’t actually cool while economic growth continues, even as interest rates remain elevated amid the Federal Reserve’s […]
We recently discussed the recession signals from the NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) and the inverted yield curve. “As in 2019, we see many of the same recession signals from the NFIB survey again combined with a high percentage of yield curve inversions. Notably, out of the ten yield spreads we track, which are […]
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years.” Let’s HOPE she is correct. As logical as her statement seems today, it may look equally foolish in short order. As we will explain, HOPE leads us to believe Yellen does not appreciate […]
The market correction has started. The question we have repeatedly discussed over the last several weeks is the ongoing battle between bullish technical improvements and bearish fundamentals. On January 27th, we discussed the bullish signals the market was giving despite the Fed’s continued hawkish stance on monetary policy. The market surge continued last week but […]
Bullish investors continue to “Fight the Fed,” hoping that a change to monetary policy will reignite the 12-year-long bull market. But, for over a decade, the “Don’t Fight The Fed” mantra was the “call to arms” for bullish investors. “With zero interest rate policies and the most aggressive monetary campaign in history, investors elevated the financial markets […]
The stock market is betting on a Goldilocks scenario. Jerome Powell doesn’t foresee a recession, instead he forecasts a soft landing. Apollo is bettering the soft landing scenario with an optimistic “no-landing.” Regardless of which description you choose, all three are bets that a recession will not occur. Assuming the markets, Apollo, and Powell are […]