Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision
Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, we present this article as a courtroom exercise. We will let the […]
Investing Myths Dismantled (Chapter 4 of 5)
“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 3 of […]
Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?
The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble. At the same time the CAPE is ringing […]
Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)
“Math of Loss” is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology The first two articles in this series were about behavior. How […]
Productivity On Gilligan’s Island: Episode 2
Over 7 years ago, we wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan’s Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, we present the next episode of […]
Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)
“Investor Psychology” is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face […]
Three Percent Real TIPS Yields: Boring But Valuable
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than three percent after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default? Such an opportunity exists today in US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). One more question: […]
Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” There is a chart that lands in your feed every few months. It plots a single dollar dropped into the […]
Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal
Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review and Outlook. The structural […]