Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?
Believe it or not, it’s been 18 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Despite many detailed investigative reports on the events and even the popularity of The Big Short, a box-office hit and bestselling book, the role of subprime […]
S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.
Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook […]
The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype
While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront […]
The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?
Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets […]
Beta: A Powerful But Faulty Tool For Managing Risk
When investors want to reduce risk, one commonly used tool is beta. For instance, an investor may sell higher-beta stocks and replace them with lower-beta ones to cushion against an expected market decline. Such a strategy is intuitive and widely […]
Stock Market Breadth: Warning Or Opportunity?
The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% from its January 27 all-time high. Unsurprisingly, the media is full of “red” headlines discussing the seemingly “endless” correction we are in. Unsurprisingly, previously complacent investors are now anxious, as nothing seems to […]
Will AI Trigger The Next Great Depression?
Our article title is certainly scary. The question we pose has become a hot topic following the release of “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” by Citrini Research. While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we […]
The 200-DMA Just Broke: What Every Investor Should Know
There are hundreds of technical indicators that market analysts track, but only one gets a live television chyron the moment it breaks. The 200-day moving average (200-DMA) is the single most widely followed technical level in global financial markets, and […]
Private Credit Stress: Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?
The Fed is governed by its dual Congressional mandates of price stability and maximum employment. At times, however, the Fed throws these mandates out the window to protect the financial system. With liquidity and credit stress in the private credit […]