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“Earnings drive market outcomes. In 151 years, every single 20% market decline was accompanied by a double-digit earnings decline, with zero exceptions.” Every few months, a new reason to sell arrives. Capital spending is too high. The deficit is unsustainable. […]

Having just published Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit, a reader pointed us to an article from Nikkei Asia titled “Five US Tech Giants’ Hidden Debt Soars To $1.65tn On Opaque AI Funding.” He asked if the article and its claims that […]

Lately, it seems like you can’t open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is everywhere: bonds are broken, the old rules no longer apply, and investors should modernize by swapping the […]

“Carnage in hyperscaler bond land”, claims the Tweet below. The graph below the Tweet shows “exploding” yield spreads for hyperscalers. These hyperbolic messages and many others are generating fear in some investors that the largest hyperscalers are in financial trouble. […]

Every time interest rates rise, the “bond bears” flood the media with commentary suggesting US Treasuries are no longer a “safe asset.” The 30-year Treasury bond closed last Thursday at 5.17%. Meanwhile, the 10-year touched 4.71%, its highest print since […]

SpaceX’s June IPO raised $75 billion, resulting in an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history. SpaceX, encompassing its launch business, Starlink, and the recently merged xAI, peaked at a $2.5 trillion market cap in […]

Decades of data across global markets reach the same verdict: the more frequently retail traders trade, the worse they perform. The infrastructure has never been more inviting. The losses have never been more documented. Here are some key statistics we […]

A sailor who fixates on the barometer will rarely leave port. A sailor who never checks it will eventually get caught in a storm. It’s easy for most investors to fall into one of those two modes, either warning that […]

If you knew you were standing inside a stock market bubble, you wouldn’t be standing in it for long. You’d sell. So would I, and so would everyone reading this. And if spotting market bubbles was something everyone could do […]