I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.” “I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did […]
As money market account balances soar, the mainstream media again proclaims, “There is $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines just waiting to come into the market.” No? Well, here it is directly from YahooFinance: “The growing pile of cash in money market funds should serve as a strong backstop for the stock market in […]
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Part One of this series highlights how the government’s fixation with full employment and the Fed’s belief in the faulty Phillips Curve model from 1965 to 1982 fueled multiple bouts of inflation. We also touched on that fateful day in 1971 when President Nixon removed the fiscal and monetary shackles, essentially giving the government and […]
As the stock market hit all-time highs this past week, there remains an interesting disconnect from the more dour economic concerns of the average American. A recent survey by Axios, a left-leaning website that supports the current Administration, addressed this issue. “Poll after poll shows that the country is bummed out by the economy. Voters blame Biden. Nearly four in […]
Investor psychology is one of the most significant reasons why individuals consistently fall short of their investment goals. While one of the most common truisms is that “investors buy high and sell low,” the underlying reason is the behavioral traits that plague our investment decision-making. George Dvorsky once wrote that: “The human brain is capable […]
Appreciating Apollo’s graph below, comparing recent inflation to multiple bouts of inflation of the late 1960s, 70s, and early 80s is of utmost importance for investors. Sustained levels of high inflation are poor for stock and bond returns. Even more worrying, high inflation is insidious for the financial well-being and morale of the nation’s citizens. […]
As we get ready to review the Q4 earnings report, stocks have rallied sharply over the last two months. As we have discussed previously, it will be unsurprising that we will see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. Of course, the high beat rate is always the case due to the sharp […]
My favorite chart doesn’t tell you three important things about investing and risk management. However, the chart puts the volatility that can occur in any given year into perspective. Various versions of this chart have been floating around the internet since 2013, when it was first published by J.P. Morgan’s “Guide To The Markets.” The […]