Gold Bugs Faulty Thesis: M2 and Inflation
Gold bugs often claim that when more dollars are in circulation, each dollar buys less; prices rise, and gold, as a store of value, helps protect purchasing power from that decline. As a result, they believe that a rising money […]
Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky
Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. […]
BDCs: Not All Yield Is Created Equal
Gated funds, collateral fraud, and auto-sector defaults are giving investors in private credit funds and their stock-market equivalents, business development corporations (BDCs), a headache. We have discussed the recent woes of private credit funds (HERE, HERE, HERE), yet we haven’t […]
Hormuz: Why Markets Are Shrugging Off The Oil Shock
As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February 28. Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil stopped moving through the chokepoint. The International Energy Agency described the event as “the largest supply disruption in the […]
GFC 2.0 Or False Alarm Part 2
In Part One, we explored how leverage and derivatives turned subprime mortgages into a crisis that nearly brought down the global financial system. With a better understanding of the derivatives and leverage that led to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), […]
Market Lesson: Why Panic Is A Costly Mistake
The Iran shock erased 18% from valuations and fully recovered in two weeks. Investors who panicked missed it all. Here’s what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now. The stock […]
Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?
Believe it or not, it’s been 18 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Despite many detailed investigative reports on the events and even the popularity of The Big Short, a box-office hit and bestselling book, the role of subprime […]
S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.
Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook […]
The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype
While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront […]