“How To Win The Long Game” is the final chapter of our series and we dig into the rules and guidelines for better investing and portfolio risk management. Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management […]
Heading into the September 16 FOMC meeting, the debate over whether the Fed should raise rates or hold is heated. To help you appreciate the range of views, we present this article as a courtroom exercise. We will let the prosecution make its case for a rate hike, and the defense make its case for […]
“Investing Myths Dismantled” is chapter 4 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management Chapter 3 of this series, linked above, ended with […]
The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at […]
“Math of Loss” is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management The first two articles in this series were about […]
Over 7 years ago, we wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan’s Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, we present the next episode of Gilligan’s Island, describing what happens after the benefits of innovation no longer drive economic growth. […]
“Investor Psychology” is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management In the first part of this series, I promised that […]
Would you consider investing in a bond that earns more than three percent after accounting for inflation? What if that security has zero chance of default? Such an opportunity exists today in US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). One more question: Would your answer change if the expected real return on stocks over the next ten […]
“Think Like An Investor” is chapter 1 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around “investing for the long run.” Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology Chapter 3: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter Chapter 4: Investing Myths Dismantled Chapter 5: Risk Management There is a chart that lands in your […]