Presuming Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair is approved by the Senate, as is widely expected, yesterday’s FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell’s last as its Chair. However, he will stay on as a voting Governor. As he explains: Things that happened in the last 3 months left me no choice but to see them through […]
The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has been a defining partnership in the blooming AI technology. But the partnership terms are changing, and what was once a solid relationship may be fracturing. On Monday morning, Microsoft shares quickly fell 5% as the Bloomberg headline “OpenAI Breaks Free From Exclusive AI Pact With Partner Microsoft” sent concern […]
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is on an incredible 18-day winning streak. Over this period, starting on March 31st, the SOX index has risen by 44%. This marks the longest winning streak in the index’s 32-year history. Moreover, it is now up 150% year over year, exceeding its 100% year-over-year gain during the dot-com boom. […]
On Thursday, the executives at Service Now (NOW) and IBM learned an important lesson the hard way as their stocks fell by 18% and nearly 10%, respectively. The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results. IBM beat earnings expectations across the board. However, […]
Having just hit record highs following an historically impressive 13-day winning streak, stocks are susceptible to a pullback or, at a minimum, consolidation. Beyond the direction over the next week or two, the bigger question is what comes after that. The answer to the question will present itself over time. However, in the meantime, we […]
On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate for his nomination hearing for the Fed Chair. The biggest takeaway is Warsh’s desire to “reform” the Fed. Based on his appearance, reform seems to cover the following three areas: Regarding current monetary policy, Warsh believes inflation is lower than official indicators state. We have noted this […]
Our title above about Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares is a gross understatement. Since March 20th, CAR has risen nearly 500%, as we share below. While there are, and were, some favorable tailwinds driving the upward trend, such as rising used-car prices and elevated rental-car usage during the TSA-related problems, the most glaring factor is […]
Since the start of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) is up 33% compared with the broader market, which is up only 4%. The primary rationale for the significant outperformance appears to be the insatiable demand for AI and a shift in its usage. Unlike the past couple of years, in which Nvidia […]
As shown in the graph below, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauges tells us that consumer confidence is now the worst its been since the survey began in 1952. Despite the confidence gauges being lower than during peak Covid shutdown, the GFC, and the 1970s oil crisis/inflation outbreak, the economy (GDP) and the employment […]