Since the Iranian conflict began, bond yields have risen sharply due to investor expectations of a spike in inflation. Recent inflation data shows those rising inflation expectations are somewhat justified. In March and April, the monthly rate of inflation, as measured by CPI, rose by 0.86% and 0.64%, respectively. On an annualized basis, those equate […]
Last week’s release of the April FOMC minutes shows a growing push among the FOMC members to drop any indication of an easing bias. This has led the media to assume the Fed is more hawkish. Three weeks ago, at that meeting, three members dissented because they felt the language in the statement was biased […]
SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th. Below is a summary of key information from the SEC filing. IPO Offering: SpaceX is targeting a valuation ranging between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. For context, Broadcom is the 6th-largest company in the […]
When investors discuss the semiconductor chips driving AI infrastructure, they almost always key on Nvidia GPU chips. That’s not surprising, given the surge in Nvidia GPU revenue as we share below. Since 2024, GPU revenue has risen by over 1300% while Nvidia shares are up almost 400%. Nvidia has certainly played the lead role in […]
Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While that may hold some truth today and for the next few months, some of the world’s largest oil producers are ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz is not the lynchpin it […]
As we wrote in Yesterday’s Commentary, the broad market indexes have surged since the April lows, driven largely by a handful of technology and AI stocks and the benefit of massive options volumes. Among the leaders is Nvidia (NVDA), climbing nearly 40% from the April lows. Tomorrow, NVDA reports earnings, which, given its leadership role […]
There is plenty in the media about whether this recent market surge is driven by strong earnings and upwardly revised earnings estimates, or by market mechanics. While earnings have been impressive, the bulk of the fundamental performance has been driven by a handful of AI/technology companies. Similarly, while the broad market indexes have performed well, […]
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires this Friday, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor. The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership. Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come […]
Investors are optimistic that the Wednesday kickoff of the US-China trade summit, featuring President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, will result in a durable deal. The current hope is for an agreement currently labeled as a “Board of Trade” framework. Such a pact would create a trade mechanism in which each side […]