Rapidly warming ocean waters almost ensure an El Niño condition by July. El Nino is a periodic warming of ocean surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that disrupts normal weather patterns globally. El Nino patterns can cause droughts in some regions and excessive rainfall in others. This expected episode is much stronger than […]
The Fed is clearly more hawkish than they were at the last meeting. Accordingly, with the Fed Funds market now pricing in two rate hikes by year’s end, we should be armed with data showing how the first Fed Funds rate hike in a cycle is processed by the equity markets. Moreover, with higher rates […]
Presiding over his first Fed meeting, Kevin Warsh and the FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Such was the fourth consecutive hold following a series of rate cuts. The decision for Warsh to hold rates steady was in little doubt. The Fed’s economic projections, aka the dot plot, and Warsh’s debut press conference were what every […]
The equity market spent early 2026 with wavering odds of a rate cut before year-end. With improving labor data and high inflation, that assumption is becoming untenable. While the Fed Funds futures and bond markets are now pricing in odds of a rate increase, the equity markets don’t seem to care. Let’s consider the […]
Since the Iranian conflict started on February 28, 2026, gold has fallen by about 25%. The decline is shown in the graphic below, but more importantly, we highlight FinViz’s rationale for why gold traded lower on June 10th. That day, they claim war and hot inflation are the culprits for gold falling by 1.1%. We […]
Markets rallied late last week on headlines that a US-Iran peace agreement is close. While the politics are complicated and any potential agreement is fragile, investors should be thinking ahead. What will a peace deal, whether it’s this week or in months, mean for markets? When the initial ceasefire was announced in April, oil prices […]
The coming wave of equity supply we detailed in The IPO Boom is growing. Last week, Alphabet executed an $80 billion secondary equity offering to fund AI infrastructure, including a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway. Now, the Financial Times claims that Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are planning similarly large equity raises to fund […]
After much anticipation, SpaceX (SPCX) begins trading tomorrow. The headlines will focus on the $2 trillion valuation and the likely significant volatility in the price once the SPCX begins trading. Before you decide whether to participate, it is worth understanding what you are actually buying, because SPCX is not one business. It is three very […]
Art Berman wrote an excellent analysis describing the state of the oil market and two distinct messages being debated. The following commentary is from his article: Hormuz: A Logistics Crisis, Not Yet an Inventory Crisis. The debate over the oil market and its impact on prices has sharpened. On one side are analysts like Goldman […]