U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. “Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn. The warnings coincided with a market plunge touched off by U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China, some of which […]
It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was “buying the dip” despite having an extremely bearish outlook. This is an interesting point because, as shown, the retail investor used to be considered a “contrarian indicator” as they were prone to be driven by emotional behaviors that led them to “buy high and sell low.” […]
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investingis hard.” The entire article is worth reading, but here are the five key reasons investors often fail at investing: These are great points, particularly now that there […]
The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter? The NYSE Advance-Decline (A/D) Line is one of the most crucial market breadth indicators that investors watch to assess the overall health of the stock […]
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience. At that time, most economists were convinced a “recession was […]
Investors’ bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes. While concerns about the recent market correction have risen, and bearish headlines are rampant, investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. While that may be hard to fathom, negative sentiment occurs near market lows from a contrarian […]
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull […]
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations […]
For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. While instituting a tariff on a set of products from China may indeed raise the […]