In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”. I often forget how old I have become, and the investing legends of my youth are no longer there and are lost to the sands of time. […]
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. […]
It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong. For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022. “There is one thing […]
I never thought someone would label me a “Permabull.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates. However, here we are. “Lance, you are just another permabull talking your book. When this market crashes you will still be telling […]
Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance. Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) provide valuable insights into the economic environment that shapes company profitability. […]
While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat. This is particularly the case given the current high degree of speculation and leverage in the market. It is fascinating how quickly people forget the painful beating […]
Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially when exploring the reasons behind today’s elevated profit margins and what could disrupt them. James […]
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows […]
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge […]