1,316 results found
Invest
Stephen Miran, Donald Trump’s recent addition to the Fed, joined the Federal Reserve the day before the last meeting. At that meeting, he was the only dissenting vote, supporting a 50-basis-point rate cut. All other members voted for a 25-basis-point cut. Additionally, Miran is likely the FOMC participant who thinks the Fed Funds rate should […]
Daily Market Commentary
There appears to be a frequently repeated myth on social media that foreigners are selling US Treasury bonds in large quantities. Often, the myth is supported by the belief that certain foreign governments, such as China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, are rapidly selling down their US Treasury securities. Concerns about trade deficits, inflation, and geopolitical […]
Economics
Lately, there’s been a growing sense of confidence among investors that the U.S. economy has dodged the proverbial bullet. Despite a historic rate-hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve, two years of stubborn inflation, and signs of strain in global trade, the dominant Wall Street narrative is now a curious mix of “soft landing,” “no landing,” and even “re-acceleration.”
Daily Market Commentary
Our friend Jim Colquitt, in his Weekly Chart Review, brought to our attention a large and irregular outflow from equity funds last week. He cites a Reuters article stating that investors withdrew $43 billion from US equity funds last week. That was the largest outflow since December 2024. The graph below shows that equity fund […]
Daily Market Commentary
Since the middle of July, UST 10-year yields have fallen from 4.50% to 4.00%. While the yield decline has been profitable for bondholders, it has also aided many other investors. Such a finding may seem counterintuitive, considering that lower yields are the result of a significant weakening in the labor market and a range of […]
Daily Market Commentary
Not surprisingly, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at yesterday’s meeting. With the cut, the Fed Funds rate sits at 4.00-4.25%. While the market was nearly certain of a 25bps cut, it is less clear about what the road ahead holds for Fed policy. To help us start thinking about how policy may […]
Economics
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Daily Market Commentary
Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8. That reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101. Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump […]
Daily Market Commentary
The August jobs report clarified what many investors already suspect: the U.S. labor market is stalling. Outside of healthcare and social assistance, private-sector job creation has nearly flatlined this year. So far in 2025, the economy has added an average of 74,000 private-sector jobs per month. Stripping out the ~64,000 monthly additions from healthcare jobs, […]