1,316 results found
Invest
Here we go again. The overnight funding markets are showing signs of stress, and the scent of QE is in the air. Per New York Fed President John Williams: Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long […]
Invest
During strongly trending bull markets, investors often overlook the importance of math in predicting forward returns. Such is easy to do when the market just seemingly continues to rise without regard to fundamentals. The current environment is also heavily influenced by “passive indexing,” which has distorted market dynamics. However, none of this should be surprising, given […]
Economics
I recently penned an article on "Money Supply Growth," which elicited a very thoughtful response from Garrett Baldwin via Substack. He argued that labeling Federal Reserve operations as "money printing" is not rhetoric, but rather a reality.
Invest
“Nvidia takes a $1 billion stake in Nokia” reads a recent CNBC headline. As part of the agreement, Nokia commits to purchasing Nvidia’s AI chips and computer platforms. Additionally, the companies will collaborate to develop 6G cellular technology. Deals like this are becoming more common in the AI industry. Some view Nvidia’s recent investment in […]
Invest
Classical conditioning teaches us a valuable lesson regarding the current investor dilemma. Pavlov’s research discovered a basic psychological rule: when a neutral stimulus is repeatedly paired with a reward‑stimulus, eventually it will trigger the same response even when the reward is absent. The famed experiment by Ivan Pavlov illustrated that dogs would salivate at the […]
Daily Market Commentary
The chart below, courtesy of Apollo’s Torsten Slok, shows that small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed small-cap companies with positive earnings by about 30% since early April. Per Torsten: “Something remarkable is going on in the equity market. Stock prices of companies with negative earnings have in recent months outperformed stock prices of companies […]
Daily Market Commentary
As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation. Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known […]
Daily Market Commentary
In August 2025, Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based meat producer, took to social media to call reports of its bankruptcy “unequivocally false“. Despite the assurances, the company was floundering, and bankruptcy was a possibility. The company has significant liabilities and has lost money every year since its IPO. Adding to their woes, sales peaked in […]
Daily Market Commentary
Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are […]