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The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators, compiled by the Conference Board, fell by 1.0%. The decline was the tenth in a row. As shown below, such a streak of consecutive monthly declines has led to seven of the last eight recessions. The pandemic-related recession is the outlier. Given the unexpected and somewhat random nature of the […]
Newsletter
This week's report will cover several tidbits of data impacting the market over the last week. The most critical tidbit came from St Louis Fed president Jim Bullard (a non-voter this year), who spoke to the WSJ's Fed Mouthpiece Nick Timiraos. He stated that while US interest rates have to rise further to ensure that inflationary pressures recede, "the US is now 'almost' in the restrictive territory."
Earnings from the big banks were generally good, but the banks expressed concern about the economy. JP Morgan initially traded lower despite beating expectations on earnings and revenues. Of concern, the bank built its loss reserves by $1.4bn. While more than expected, it pales compared to the $18 billion added in 2020. The bank warned […]
Newsletter
Interestingly, despite the Fed continuing to send warnings, "Fighting the Fed" has become the bull's new mantra. From one economic report to the next, bullish investors continue to look for any reason to buy stocks in hopes the Fed will pivot soon. Such was the case this past week as the markets rallied again, heading into the much-anticipated inflation report.
Newsletter
The recent release of the FOMC minutes and stronger-than-expected ADP employment data led to a sell-off early in the week. However, Friday's more robust employment report led to a massive surge in stocks as wages showed some initial weakness. Once again, and having failed to learn their lesson, the bulls piled into stocks hoping for a "Fed pivot."
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"Capitalism" is not the same as "Corporatism." Yet, whenever you mention capitalism, there is palpable anger that arises from a fundamental widespread belief.
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Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.
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The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
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Here is what you might have missed from the RIA Crew last week. A compilation of our best blogs, newsletter, podcasts, the daily radio show and commentary from RIAPRO.NET.