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Daily Market Commentary
Our first article of the year, January Stats & New Year Investing Resolutions for 2024, provides a review of what we might expect in 2024. 2024 is a little unique as the upcoming presidential election will certainly be a critical factor driving markets. Election years tend to have better performance. This occurs in part because […]
Daily Market Commentary
Happy New Year! To get an idea of what may lie ahead in 2024, we need to briefly review the market landscape through the end of last year. The S&P 500 finished the year roughly 25% higher, but as shown in Friday’s Tweet of the Day, the top 10 stocks were behind approximately 75% of […]
Newsletter
While the price action this past week reduced some of the overbought conditions, as represented by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), more work is still ahead. Next week, the "Santa Claus Rally" will officially begin, lasting through the first two days of January. Given the overbought condition, further upside may remain limited.
Newsletter
As we will discuss, the FOMC pivot sent stocks soaring and bond yields lower, as the message was more dovish than even the bulls expected. Notably, as measured by the volatility index, any bearishness was crushed.
Newsletter
While the market struggled to advance early in the week, on Thursday and Friday, markets climbed to set new closing highs for the year, as shown. However, the combination of overbought conditions and excess bullish sentiment limited gains from weaker-than-expected economic reports that should keep the Federal Reserve at bay next week. It is worth remembering, however, that we are still lower nearly two years later. Most investors have spent the last 15 months making up losses, and markets may struggle next year.
Economics
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Newsletter
It's that time of year when Wall Street analysts start pinning targets for next year's performance of the S&P 500. Unsurprisingly, they are unanimously bullish, but there is a simple reason for that, which we will discuss today.
Newsletter
The rally continued this past week, and we are approaching the 100% retracement of the July highs. Such changes the dynamics of a pullback to the previous resistance levels of 78.6%, 61.8%, and 50% retracements. With the 50-DMA coinciding with the last 50% retracement level, we expect the maximum drawdown of any correction to hold that level going into year-end.
Newsletter
Market rallies are common heading into year-end, and this rally is no different. However, we are now reaching more extreme levels of typical reflexive rallies, and a consolidation or correction to support should be expected.